3 reasons why the price of Bitcoin failed to rise above $40,000


The stories that have continued to occur in the cryptocurrency market in the past few months have always been about Bitcoin (Bitcoin) Destined to fall again or eventually prepare to break new highs.

Bitcoin’s price history and previously revised data indicate that due to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, possible weakening of economic stimulus measures, and a series of technical factors related to Bitcoin’s price trend, the current competition for top cryptocurrencies may continue for some time.

A strong U.S. dollar threatens Bitcoin’s recovery

Data from Delphi Digital shows that one of the biggest factors that put pressure on global risk assets is the strength of the US dollar, which seems to be trying to reverse the trend after it fell below 90 in late May.

DXY 1 day chart. source: TonRating view

The strengthening of the U.S. dollar brought to an abrupt end the year-long upward trend in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields. This also reflects that the economic expansion in the first half of 2021 has begun to lose momentum, and a new wave of threats exists. Covid-19 infection threatens global economic recovery .

Fractals and death crosses indicate that the correction is not over yet

Bitcoin’s short-term outlook remains bearish, as the previous instance of the “death cross” that appeared on the BTC chart in late June is followed by a correction period that can last for nearly a year.

A bearish crossover of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. source: Delphi Digital

Delphi Digital analysts said that they are testing the 12-month moving average as support, and a break below this level will indicate a further decline in BTC prices.

Bitcoin price tests the 12-month moving average. source: Delphi Digital

Historically, the 12-month moving average has been a key support level for Bitcoin, so the price performance near this level may determine whether the current upward trend remains the same.

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In general, traders need to be cautious because historically, when fewer public bids will cause rapid price fluctuations, low trading volumes will lead to higher volatility.

As Kevin Kelly, a certified financial analyst at Delphi Digital, explained, “if we break through these key levels” approaching $30,000, the short-term outlook will become even more pessimistic.

Kelly said:

“I don’t necessarily think that we will see as serious drawdowns as we say, after December 2017, early 2018, and until the end of that year. But I do think that, considering only the market structure, we might Facing more short-term volatility and more resistance.”

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