Bitcoin (Bitcoin) This Monday is close to 40,000 US dollars, because the new week begins, the bulls will usher in a big explosion.
A peaceful and confident weekend with Dramatic run-up Overnight on Sunday, BTC/USD quickly approached the top of its trading range for several months.
With favorable fundamentals and large liquidation of short positions, Bitcoin looks set to investigate levels not seen in a few weeks.
As this week continues, what will affect price movements? Cointelegraph considered five factors to consider when plotting BTC price trends in the next few days.
Bitcoin focuses on $40,000
Spot price trends are naturally a topic everyone is paying attention to at present-in 24 hours, Bitcoin’s rise is close to 15%.
Although the resistance level of $40,000 has not been broken, the current level has not appeared since mid-June, and the bullish appetite is obvious.
After last week’s “The B-Word” conference, it started slowly, including the praise of Bitcoin by Jack Dorsey and Elon Musk.
However, the breakthrough did not appear immediately and progress was slow because analysts Stay vigilant They believe that it is still easy to collapse the market to a new cycle low.
However, in this case, Bitcoin rose slowly during the week, falling by $34,500 over the weekend and opening up the prospect of rising.
Impulsive action is widely expected, including Cointelegraph writer Michaël van de Poppe, whose potential targets are within the established medium-term range, capped at $42,000.
However, on Monday, even van de Poppe seemed shocked by the authenticity of the rise, calling it a “surprise.”
“After Bitcoin’s move, altcoins will follow suit,” he Expected On Twitter.
“Some people performed well in their BTC pair because Cardano and Ethereum performed well. Great!”
Trader Crypto Ed is more cautious.Emphasizing the analysis of Elliott waves, he debate Even the return of the bull market is not without its crux, and after $42,000, $29,000 can still return according to his previous prediction.
For those who follow the Elliott Wave: Technically, it is still possible to move to new lows as long as we don’t break White 2.
But based on the lower TF tag of this impulsive move, I expect to break through 2 and invalidate the 26-27k move
— Crypto_Ed_NL (@Crypto_Ed_NL) July 26, 2021
“This does not mean that we will go straight up, there will be a callback/correction/retest after we break 42k, but once 41.5-42k is broken, new lows are unlikely to happen,” he reasoned Monday.
China curbs stock market sentiment
The decline in the relationship between Bitcoin and the traditional market has become the focus of attention again, which makes the price trend look more “impulsive”.
Although the recent stock gains have been accompanied by flat or even negative performance of BTC/USD, the situation has changed in the past few days. Now, when Bitcoin is soaring, the stock market is overcoming headwinds from China.
An analyst told Bloomberg on Monday that Beijing’s repression has overshadowed the previous strength of the US market, coupled with rising concerns about inflation and the reduction of stimulus measures by the central bank, resulting in unstable market sentiment.
Virginie Maisonneuve, Chief Investment Officer of Allianz Global Investors, said: “The second half of this year will be half full and half empty.” Tell The TV network of the publication.
As encryptionedit Continue to emphasizeAt the same time, the strengthening of the US dollar in the short term is also worthy of attention. Currently still in a rebound, the US Dollar Currency Index (DXY) is expected to hit a local high near 94 and then fall again, which gives Bitcoin some real breathing space.
However, until then, DXY may eventually put pressure on the cryptocurrency market.
“DXY is expected to fall more in the next few days, so BTC should see more relief rebounds,” he said Say The chart next to Thursday.
“Just like the previous tweets: When DXY finishes moving to the red frame and enters the green frame, the true strength of cryptocurrency will return.”
“Reckett!” Bitcoin brings shorter greatest pain
Does it always look good? If you short BTC, you won’t.
As commentators have recently hinted, when the BTC/USD is still close to $30,000, the “maximum pain” scenario may not be a new loss, but a dramatic upward reversal.
This is exactly what happened-15% of overnight gains caused severe losses to market participants who were convinced that a crash was imminent.
According to monitoring resources byteOn Monday, the total amount of 24-hour liquidation was 1.1 billion U.S. dollars, the highest level since May 18.
“The $111 million short position was liquidated in 10 minutes,” analyst William Clement Add to, Citing further data from the analysis company Glassnode.
It’s not the first time for a bear Caught off guard — The nature of Bitcoin ensures time and time again that those who are too negative will eventually be eliminated.
Difficulties will be corrected in 2 months
The recovery of Bitcoin’s fundamentals lasted much longer than the price and continued unabated this week.
Computing power It is close to 100 exahashes per second (EH/s) again, which is a positive sign, with the decentralization of the overall hash rate.
In the past week, when the hash rate is still hovering near the local low of 83 EH/s, earnings have been strong. At the highest point before the price drop in May, the hash rate reached 168 EH/s.
Similar stories are in Network difficulties, At the time of writing, it is expected that it will increase by approximately 3.7% in the next readjustment five days later.
If this happens, this will be the first positive change in difficulty since the mine was difficult to come in in May, and it will also be a strong signal that the effects of the turbulence have been alleviated.
Although it is questionable as a topic, the concept of Bitcoin “eco-friendliness” is still an important topic, and large miners use this statement to appease the market that is skeptical of Bitcoin’s lifespan.
The statistics speak for themselves-renewable and sustainable energy is Getting stronger With the relocation of miners to a suitable jurisdiction, the Bitcoin network.
Recording “fear” continues
Those who worry that price increases may be “too fast, too fast” can cheer up from the relative calmness that comes with them.
according to Crypto Fear and Greed Index, The shift to $40,000 did not change the overall market sentiment based on “fear”.
On Monday, the index was 26/100—indicating fear, not greed or a “neutral” atmosphere—indicating that Bitcoin may rise further, and investors will not feel excessively greedy and easily trigger a sell-off.
“The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has been below 40 in 2 months-the longest time period ever,” said Dennis Scott, CEO of the exchange Coin Corner. famous last week.
“But we are still above $30,000”
In the past few months, “extreme fear” has dominated, and at the same time, this feature has also recently emerged Features Traditional market.