Bitcoin (Bitcoin) Start a new week with a new price range above $51,000-has it broken a key resistance?
After the weekend due to the BTC price trend turning from sideways to soaring, the bulls are now aiming for $54,000 or higher.
Given how It’s hard to hold $50,000 At any time in the past month—not to mention beating sellers at a price of $51,000 or more—anything can happen in the next few hours and days.
All things considered, Cointelegraph considers five factors worth considering when deciding where Bitcoin might go next.
Was the $51,000 seller beaten?
it’s been use different ways Called by analysts as the “critical” and “last hurdle”-Bitcoin has now surpassed $51,000.
This move takes a long time-multiple attempts to break $50,000, which is a psychological obstacle in itself, but failed to turn it into support in the end. Facts have proved that the number of sellers above this range is too much for the bulls, who previously lacked the motivation to maintain a higher level.
However, the paradigm changed from Sunday to Monday night, and BTC/USD finally broke through $51,000 for the first time since mid-May.The question now is “Can you hold it?”
For some people, the answer is obvious.
“The target is $54,000,” analyst William Clement Summarize Just before the real momentum was built overnight, Cointelegraph writer Michaël van de Poppe describe A BTC above $51,000 is “great.”
In this case, BTC/USD hit a high just below $52,000, then cooled and consolidated around that peak.
This puts the currency pair at the very top of the resistance wall. Before the bulls return, only $52,000 is left as a meaningful obstacle.
“There is a volume gap here, it’s just air. So the price may change quickly,” Pentoshi excited Add to, Analyze the current spot price settings.
“The price is also higher than the PoC. Buyers are in control.”
Pentium Argued before In fact, $50,000 as a technical milestone has little impact. But he said on Saturday that $48,700 is very important for the daily closing price to ensure further increases.
El Salvador adopts Bitcoin
This week Bitcoin will take a less technical but equally symbolic move-it will become the legal tender of a sovereign country for the first time in history.
On Tuesday, El Salvador will officially start using Bitcoin as its National currency used with U.S. dollar.
Despite the severe warnings issued by the International Monetary Fund and other institutions, and even the suspension of this initiative, the country’s President Nayib Bukele remained unwavering. Now, Bitcoin and its adoption will begin a major new experiment.
Alex Gladstein, Chief Strategy Officer of the Human Rights Foundation, said in a statement: “As El Salvador achieves a large-scale technological leap in the financial future, unfortunate events will inevitably occur before any other country. ” Series of tweets On this topic.
Gladstein mentioned the political initiatives of the Bukele government and other issues that made Bitcoin adoption an interesting chapter in the country’s history. However, personally, the benefits of any Salvadoran are still obvious.
“For Salvadorans who are open-minded and willing to work to understand Bitcoin, it can produce huge results,” he added.
At the same time, a current sport Accumulate steam In social media involving Brazil, the Bitcoin community plans to buy 30 USD worth of BTC per person to support the law.
Saravdo Government pass through Last week moved to create a $150 million Bitcoin fund.
Bitcoin is expected to receive difficulty gains for the fourth time in a row
Bitcoin price movements continue to be supported by fundamentals, but they refuse to give up the pace of rising.
In less than two days, the next automatic re-adjustment will add one Estimated 2.5% The difficulty of Bitcoin has increased for the fourth time in a row.
As Cointelegraph Report Last week, this will be the first such event since Bitcoin broke through $50,000 for the first time in February.
As an important indicator of miner activity, it can also be said to be the most important feature of Bitcoin. The difficulty adjustment did not show any signs of abating the surprising recovery pattern, which began after the Chinese miners plunged in May. .
at the same time, Hash rate It also continued to rebound, passing 130 exahash (EH/s) per second this weekend, and it is now only 37 EH/s below the all-time high.
The new hardware brought by the relocation and newly active miners has greatly increased the hash rate-at the low point, this metric was about half of the peak in 2021.
By Christmas, the inventory flow will reach $100,000
The new month requires a new update to one of Bitcoin’s most accurate price prediction models, the inventory-to-flow (S2F) series.
Although BTC/USD is still far below the daily technical goal of the model, its creator PlanB, Accurately called The monthly closing price in August was $47,000.
Since the lowest closing price in September was US$43,000, analysts confirmed that the average price of US$100,000 later this year is still easy to achieve.
“The baseline S2F forecast of $100,000 before Christmas is still valid (or more accurately: the average for the 2020-2024 halving period is $100,000),” he said Tweet The chart next to Sunday.
“The on-chain (non-S2F) indicators have not yet shown signs of the top (no red dot). This is in line with S2F’s forecast.”
With this, Bitcoin has entered the “orange” phase of the model, and the last time it appeared was a price increase in the second half of 2017. BTC price trend, PlanB statement, So it behaves “like a clockwork.”
“I think our price is much higher than $100,000,” he added that the current halving cycle will end in 2024.
Extreme greed is back
Those who are concerned about a rebound in the price of Bitcoin may prove to be correct.
According to sentiment indicators Crypto Fear and Greed Index, Traders have returned to the “extremely greedy” mentality.
As a result, Fear & Greed scored 79/100, which is only 16 points away from its all-time high area, which has triggered corrective actions in the past.
To avoid being touched prematurely, BTC price increases need to be slow and steady, so impulsive actions may still prove to be unsustainable.
Nevertheless, the index was 79 in August and has remained between 70 and 80 for the past four weeks.
Funding interest rates help generate a sense of expectation. The interest rate is much lower than the level when BTC broke through $50,000 for the first time at the beginning of this year, and it is much lower than the level of excitement in April.
In other words, traders are much more cautious this time and will not tend to be bearish if the price tries to regain the $50,000 level. However, this may actually increase the likelihood of a short squeeze and more increases in Bitcoin prices in the coming days.