5 things to watch for Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (Bitcoin) Thanks to a boost from a familiar source Elon Musk, the new week has begun a pleasant climax. The good times are back?

After spending close to $30,000 for several weeks, Bitcoin succeeded in a sustained rally to attack the main resistance.

With the flashing bullishness of the indicators on the chain, there may be a chance for a breakthrough, but analysts and traders are far from 100% convinced.

Cointelegraph researched five things that may affect the BTC price trend in the next few days.

Musk’s tweets once again changed the rules of the game…

Topic in the city, Again, Is Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX this week.

After playing the devil’s spokesperson on Twitter many times, Musk firmly fell out of favor and returned to the battlefield with news that seemed unlikely before.

Earlier this year, Tesla abandoned bitcoin payments shortly after announcing bitcoin payments and did not actually process any BTC transactions. According to Musk, this is due to the alleged improper use of energy involved in mining.

Musk has been widely criticized for his logic and its influence on Bitcoin’s price trend, but he did not give up, and subsequently posted tweets about various aspects of Bitcoin and altcoins, resulting in obvious but relatively moderate price movements.

Now, the self-proclaimed “Technoking” seems to have adjusted his social media approach again.

In response to a complaint from Magda Wierzycka, CEO of financial services company Sygnia, he reopened Tesla’s adoption of Bitcoin. Wierzycka’s criticism of Musk’s Bitcoin impact is cover Provided by Cointelegraph last week.

“When it is confirmed that miners with positive future trends are reasonably (about 50%) using clean energy, Tesla will resume allowing Bitcoin transactions,” Musk RespondedAnd added that Tesla still owns 90% of its initial $1.5 billion BTC purchase.

At the time of writing, BTC/USD was pleased with the news and climbed above $39,000, with a daily increase of more than 12%.

Indicators produce mixed narratives

As Cointelegraph Report Last weekend, the bullish situation was supported by a series of indicators on the chain.

Covering prices and activity addresses, spent output margin (SOPR), and inventory flow, the analysis tool clearly pointed out that Bitcoin at the current price is undervalued.

Therefore, predictions of a comeback in the short to medium term are quietly appearing-a 85,000 USD required In the next few months, although PlanB, the creator of the inventory-to-flow model, still believes that this year’s $100,000 is reasonable.

At the same time, there are two other charts to consider on Monday-one of which is visited less frequently than the other.

related: VORTECS report: When this indicator lights up, LUNA, MATIC, and EGLD usually increase by 10%

As famous With the support of institutions such as PlanB, Bitcoin’s memory pool has undergone a major reset this month, which means that current transactions are very cheap compared to the expected processing time.

This is not only a “good time” to reorganize and integrate BTC wallets, but as Cane Island Alternative Advisors investment manager Timothy Peterson said, the memory pool is now back to where Bitcoin was before the parabolic rise at the end of 2020.

“Bitcoin memory pool is a good bubble indicator,” he concluded in a series of summaries. tweets on Sunday.

“The memory pool is where pending transactions wait to be processed before being added to the blockchain. This week it cleared for the first time since November 2020 (before the bubble).”

Bitcoin 7-day average memory pool size chart. Source: Blockchain.com

He went on to warn that insufficient demand reflected by the empty memory pool means that price behavior “should” tend to decline in the coming months.

At the same time, this lack of demand has become apparent on the exchange. As emphasized by the on-chain monitoring resource CryptoQuant, both the inflow and outflow of exchanges have dropped significantly.

The $40,000 battle is underway

Due to Bitcoin’s latest rise, traders waking up on Monday will be interested in a level.

After waiting for a decisive move during several weeks of price compression, they are now likely to witness an attack on $40,000 or more.

This is very important in itself-it is estimated that there is a general requirement to lower the price in the short term before the rebound, but so far, Bitcoin has refused to comply.

“Before I expect some corrections, I should make one more leg,” popular trader Crypto Ed Say On Monday morning.

“Currently I only see intraday trades set on low TF.”

He added that he will wait for a lower level before possible market entry, but at the same time, BTC/USD may reach a high of $47,000.

The BTC/USD scenario of Crypto Ed as of June 14. Source: Crypto Ed/Twitter

Short sellers were mocked. Crypto Ed pointed out that in the context of bullish sentiment and MicroStrategy’s upcoming purchase of another $500 million in BTC, many people are already at a loss or have been liquidated.

“How does that feel? Are you underwater in your short position and realize that Saylor is ready for a new $500 shopping spree?” He Add to, Referring to the company’s CEO, Michael Seller.

At the time of writing, BTC/USD hovered around $39,500 after hitting a local high of $39,783 on Bitstamp.

BTC/USD 1-hour candlestick chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Fundamentals reflect the chaos of miners

At the same time, away from the chain, the fundamentals of the Bitcoin network look less solid.

With the fierce Bitcoin energy debate, miners continue to face pressure from China, especially in China Knockout Who is allowed to use local energy mining is underway.

Some people believe that this is a blow or even a ban on Bitcoin’s main mining energy source, while others believe that miners will continue to adapt to changes and move to other places. This may also lead to the transfer of hash rate advantage to another jurisdiction.

El Salvador is the first country in the world to make Bitcoin legal tender. It is already building its own geothermal mining facilities, becoming the latest party in the so-called Bitcoin hash war.

However, so far, the trend has been declining.according to Monitoring resources, Bitcoin’s hash rate is shrinking, and 10 exahashes (EH/s) per second disappeared in recent days.

Since the hash rate is an estimate, different sources have different numbers. The current 113 EH/s accounts for about two-thirds of this year’s historical high of 168 EH/s.

7-day average chart of Bitcoin network hash rate. Source: Blockchain.com

At the same time, the difficulty of Sunday was reduced by 5.3%, and another cut back On the card for the next automatic adjustment within two weeks.

related: As on-chain and technical analysis favored the bulls, the price of Bitcoin rose to $40,000

Volatility indicates that the top is not

Finally, for a hedge fund manager, there is still no sign of Bitcoin price peaking.

With the exception of data from Bloomberg, DTAP Capital founder and CEO Dan Tapeiro (Dan Tapeiro), volatility is too low to indicate that this is a local cap.

“Bitcoin has never achieved such low volatility. Huge upside is still ahead. Twtr sht terminology is too negative,” he said in a section of Twitter discuss on Monday.

He added that despite Saylor and MicroStrategy, corporate adoption in the US is “unlikely,” but Bitcoin is still “the biggest macro event in history.”

In addition, countries like El Salvador have great potential for imitating actions.

Tapeiro drew attention to Bloomberg’s assertion that US$100,000 in 2021 will be the “mean” target for BTC/USD.

Bitcoin volatility and BTC/USD price chart.Source: Dan Tapello/Twitter