Bitcoin (Bitcoin) It has been working hard to break through the 50,000 USD mark for more than 10 days. However, on September 2nd, Advanced cryptocurrencies briefly surpassed the milestone, Generating positive ripples in the entire market. Since then, the token has fallen below the mark, traded in the $49,000 range, and then rebounded again to the $50,000 mark on September 3.
Since Bitcoin usually operates in a cyclical pattern, looking at monthly trends in September may reveal price patterns, which in turn may help gauge the outlook for the next month. Historically, September is one of the relatively flat months for BTC.Take a look at monthly price data since 2013 show The token has two positive returns in September in eight years-in 2015 and 2016-up to 6%, which can be considered almost flat.
Pete Humiston, manager of Kraken Intelligence, the research department of the Kraken Exchange, told Cointelegraph what this trend might mean for this year:
“Historically, September was the worst month for Bitcoin. That is, it has been close to $50,000 in the past three weeks or so. If Bitcoin breaks through this important psychological milestone, it may re-emerge. Stimulate the interest of investors and stimulate the momentum needed to bring it back all the way to $60,000.”
In fact, BTC released red in September for four of the past five years, making it the bleakest period for the token. However, since Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced that the asset broke the barrier a few days later, the $50,000 mark has been considered one of the important resistance levels for the asset. The company bought 1.5 billion USD worth of BTC On February 8, at the same time began accepting Bitcoin as a payment method. The token’s brief break of the resistance level at the beginning of this month may be a positive signal for the asset.
Cointelegraph discussed the current situation with Hunain Naseer, a senior analyst at OKEx Insights, the research team of the cryptocurrency exchange OKEx. He said: “As far as today’s situation is concerned, the struggle of BTC below US$50,000 is a big battle that the bulls need to win before we see US$60,000. The change from US$50,000 to US$60,000 may be more than the current change from US$40,000. The change to $50,000 is much faster.”
S2F model has less deflection
The inventory flow (S2F) model of Twitter user PlanB has been one of the most accurate quantitative models, trying to evaluate and predict the price of Bitcoin. It is based on the supply of assets injected into circulation in a certain period of time. According to this model, the price of Bitcoin should have exceeded US$100,000, trading near the US$105,000 mark.
However, BTC is currently recovering from the large deviation of S2F at the end of July When the model seems to be invalidThis is not the first time Bitcoin prices have deviated from the model. The deviation started in late October 2018 and lasted until mid-June 2019, lasting for nearly seven months. In contrast, the current ongoing negative changes only lasted about three months. It is worth noting here that for the rest of the year, the S2F model was fairly flat and a similar range was predicted at the beginning of the fourth quarter.
Naseer further discussed the prediction of the model compared to market prices. He said: “Given the current sentiment and long-term fundamentals, it is not impossible for BTC to reach $100,000 by December, especially since October and November. The important month of the year. Before any corrections, they can easily set it to reach $100,000 by mid-December.”
Regarding this model, Jake Wujastyk, chief market analyst at TrendSpider, a technical analysis software company, told Cointelegraph, “Based on the use of the measurement movement from the low point in March 2020 to the candle (seven months) in October 2020, this measurement is The mobile application assumes that the move is the same, and the June 2021 low will bring it to around $100,000 by the end of the year.”
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Although the S2F model has been very accurate in predicting Bitcoin prices so far, it should be noted that all technical indicators have their limitations. Humiston talked about the broader prospects of the cryptocurrency market. He said: “Rising to 100,000 US dollars in four months will require a large inflow of funds. Although of course it is not impossible, investors’ attention has now turned to alternative crypto assets, such as Ether, Cardano and Solana, this seems unlikely.”
The altcoin boom may stop the $100,000 BTC this year
Although Bitcoin has been slowly climbing to the $50,000 mark and is actually currently working hard to maintain it, altcoins like Ethereum (Ethereum), Cardano (Have) And Solana (SOL) have been in an absolute tearing state for the past few weeks.
according to According to data from CoinMarketCap, in the first 7 days at the time of writing, 6.40% of BTC has been released. In contrast, altcoins dwarf these numbers, with SOL accounting for 73.83%, ETH accounting for 26.57%, and ADA accounting for 15.97%. SOL and ADA also recently hit a record high in September.
At the time of writing, this altcoin boom brought the Bitcoin Advantage (BTCD) index down to 41.46%, according to Data from TradingView.com. This is similar to the level it reached in June 2018. Johnny Lyu, CEO of KuCoi, a cryptocurrency exchange, told Cointelegraph:
“It’s important to understand how ETH and other altcoins compete with BTC for new investors’ funds, and how those who have been in the market for a long time behave[…] Without the prosperity of altcoins, the mass adoption of cryptocurrencies cannot be achieved. Many market participants believe that at current price levels, the value of altcoins is more likely to double. “
For example, the price of Solana has risen more than 100 times since the beginning of the year. Even PlanB’s optimistic S2F model for BTC predicts that its value will be slightly higher than $100,000 by the end of this year, which is only three times the value of the token at the beginning of the year. Such a huge return difference may even prompt investors to choose altcoins as their investment tool instead of Bitcoin.
However, compared to June and July levels, institutional interest in Bitcoin is rising.Undeveloped micro strategy Buy BTC again on August 24, This time worth 177 million US dollars. This totals 105,085 BTC, which is currently worth US$5.2 billion, which is 0.5% of the maximum supply of 21 million BTC.
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Even Citigroup, one of the most famous financial institutions in the world, consider Trading Bitcoin futures provided by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the world’s largest derivatives exchange. According to a recent report, the bank is waiting for regulatory approval to trade this derivative.
Lyu further talked about how the growth of the entire cryptocurrency market has revived institutional interest in the industry. He said: “The gradual recovery of interest in cryptocurrencies by institutions is already obvious. SpaceX invested in Bitcoin, Ethereum in August and Calda in September. The good news for the Nokia network upgrade-all of which offset the bear market in May and June and strengthened market participants’ confidence in further growth.”
Wujastyk also said that Bitcoin’s price changes in the past few months require a large amount of capital to be injected to promote the market, which shows that institutional capital will definitely be involved. The current market momentum of Bitcoin and altcoins may be the differentiating factor that has led to the historically terrible months of the cryptocurrency market.