As the $445 million option is about to expire, longs and shorts compete for the $34,000 bitcoin price


Bitcoin (Bitcoin) It has fluctuated between US$30,400 and US$36,400 in the past 12 days, and it is difficult to determine the exact reason for the lack of appetite for investors. Some analysts pointed out that Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) will be unlocked in mid-July Eventually, institutional investors have the opportunity to sell their funds, but this may not be the main reason.

At the same time, industry leaders suggested “Crypto regulation crackdown“Formation in the United States is seriously affecting investor sentiment, considering that this view is particularly problematic. China recently banned all cryptocurrency mining activities domestic.

Finally, prominent Bitcoin critics including Aswath Damodaran, professor of finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University, claimed that Cryptocurrency “failed miserably” as a currency.

Damodaran specifically mentioned the limited use of Bitcoin in microtransactions, although El Salvador is working on a plan Democratize Lightning Network solutions.

Bulls are more likely to win weekly dues

After the bears have won in the most recent quarter $3 billion option expires on Friday, This time the wind may have turned the trend favorably to the bulls. Although the level of $34,000 last week gave neutral to put put options a $310 million advantage, the upcoming Friday, July 2nd has a completely different setting.

Total open positions in Bitcoin options on July 2nd. Source: Bybt

The initial picture depicts a neutral structure, with neutral call options accounting for 8% of the open interest based on the call option ratio. Of the $445 million open interest, $230 million is represented by neutral call options, which gives the bulls a slight advantage. However, viewing more fine-grained data provides a different perspective.

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Only 18% of protective put options have a strike price of $33,000 or higher. Therefore, if Bitcoin trades above that level at 8:00 AM UTC on Friday, only $38 million of the value of these neutral to bearish instruments will last.

$34,000 is the level of success or failure for both parties

On the other hand, the bulls may try to defend the $34,000 level, resulting in $45 million in open positions in call (buy) options.

To be honest, both parties have the incentive to break this reasonable balance with $34,000. For example, above $35,000, the advantage of bulls increases from $7 million to $57 million.

Conversely, if the bitcoin transaction price is less than $33,000, the bears have the upper hand. In this case, the open position of the protective put option is $31 million more than the neutral call option.

All in all, it is impossible to predict which side will strengthen when it expires on Friday. However, this is the first time in more than four weeks that the bulls have had a good fighter meeting.

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