Despite recently breaking through the $40,000 level, Bitcoin (Bitcoin) Prices may still face downward pressure in August. The 42% rebound in late July effectively stimulated some optimistic short-term option bets, but the initial data largely favored neutral to bullish call options, and the failure to maintain $40,000 has greatly weakened this advantage .
A lot of pressure may come from the infrastructure proposal of the US Senate. Human resources 3684 Tighten regulations for companies handling cryptocurrency It also expanded the reporting requirements for brokers, which had a knock-on effect on the market’s bullish momentum. In addition to tightening the regulation of crypto businesses, supporters of the bill believe that by expanding the taxation on digital asset transactions, they can find $28 billion in additional funds.
These unexpected measures were added to the transaction on July 28, after several weeks of debate between Republicans and Democrats, another bearish factor emerged on July 27, when the acting controller of the currency, Michael Hsu, announced that the regulator was investigating the business. Bill reserve support tether (USDT).
This Friday, the $625 million bitcoin option expires and holds $400 million worth of neutral call options, which is superimposed on the $225 million protective put option. Although preliminary analysis shows significant differences, 70% of call options have been placed at $39,000 or higher.
If the maturity price is higher than $40,000, the bulls can extend the lead to $162 million
If the Bitcoin price is lower than $39,000, only $120 million call options will participate in the expiration on Friday. On the other hand, a $35 million neutral put option will be active, which will give the bulls a $85 million advantage.
If Bitcoin happens to trade above the $39,000 threshold before expiration on August 6, the difference will increase to $110 million. However, if the bulls join forces to push the market above $40,000, the call options will exceed the protective put options by $162 million.
related: The target of this bullish Bitcoin options strategy is $50,000, and there is no liquidation risk
There is still room for surprises, but the bulls have the upper hand
Even if the option expires in less than 17 hours, Bitcoin’s volatility leaves room for surprises. The bulls are the dominant force in the game, and they may use their power to maintain the price above $38,000.
Considering that the threats from the U.S. Senate and Tether investigations may not be effective in the short term, it is unlikely that the bears will come back.
After maturity, the bulls may use their profits to increase their positions in the coming weeks, which will further strengthen the current support of $37,500.
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