Bitcoin bull market is different from 3 ways at the end of 2020

Bitcoin (Bitcoin) Compared with the end of 2020, this rebound actually has several major differences that make it “abnormal”.

according to Pete Humiston, The manager of Kraken Intelligence Research, compared with the fourth quarter of 2020, Bitcoin in the third quarter of 2021 is a different beast.

GBTC maintains significant discounts

Although it has risen from US$29,000 to US$48,000 in just one month, Bitcoin still has not aroused people’s interest and purchase craze.

Higher price levels have been seen Solid support, But there is little evidence that this demand is characteristic of the beginning of this year or the end of last year.

A typical example is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which continued to trade at a discount of about 13% from the spot price this week.

Despite the increase in the price of Bitcoin, the demand for GBTC has not increased simultaneously, and even the discount rate has not been regarded as a steal by many institutional investors.

At the depth of the BTC price decline, the GBTC premium remained at around -20%.

“Despite an increase from the 20% discount set in May, the GBTC transaction price still has a significant discount (-10%),” Humiston pointed out.

“As demand really starts to pick up again, but it doesn’t seem to be, we may see this discount fade, because market participants have chosen to hold BTC exposure at discounted prices.”

GBTC premium and BTC/USD chart. Source: Bybt

Financing interest rate lags behind price performance

Two other factors that highlight the current structure of the Bitcoin market are the low open interest of Bitcoin futures and lower-than-expected financing rates.

related: Despite being the most “greedy” since its all-time high, BTC is still expected to exceed $50,000: 5 things worth paying attention to in Bitcoin this week

Both are in sharp contrast to the beginning of the 2020 bull market, and given the speed of price increases in the past month, this is contrary to food.

Bitcoin futures open interest chart. Source: Bybt

“When we saw BTC go from $30,000 to $48,000, the open interest has fallen and the price of Bitcoin has risen. The funding rate is still relatively low (albeit positive),” Humiston added.

“Neither of them really followed the massive rebound of BTC, which is surprising and not normal.”

Nonetheless, financing rates are now more positive than at any time since the price collapse in May.

BTC financing rate chart. Source: Bybt