Bitcoin bulls control Friday’s $1.7B monthly option expiration

On Friday, July 30, there were 42,850 Bitcoins (Bitcoin) The option contract ($1.7 billion) is about to expire. This may be the first time since the weekly expiration on May 21, longs have been able to profit from a $40,000 call (buy) option.

The recent price spike may be due to rumors that Amazon will accept crypto payments, but after the e-commerce giant Deny these rumors, BTC has remained relatively stable.

According to the options market, regardless of the reason behind the recent market strength, there are incentives to keep the bulls at the $40,000 level.

Summarize the open positions of Bitcoin options on July 30 by strike. Source:

Although based on the call option ratio, 21% of the initial analysis supports neutral call options, but quite a lot of the bets are on strike prices of $45,000 and higher. These options are almost worthless if they are less than 14 hours before expiration.

Bulls are in full control

Shorts are overconfident about the monthly expiration, 87% of neutral put puts are priced at $39,000 or less. If the shorts were to push the price below that level on July 30, a total of $105 million in put options would be available.

At the same time, the total amount of neutral call options under US$39,000 is US$320 million. The end result is a $215 million advantage in favor of neutral to bullish call options.

Maintaining the price above $40,000 on July 30 will increase the bulls’ lead by $140 million. This difference seems to be sufficient to justify the price above this level, at least when Deribit expires, at least before 8:00 AM UTC.

July futures contracts also have an impact

Bitcoin futures expiration occurs at the same time, but unlike options, long and short positions are evenly matched at all times.

A total of 650 million US dollars of BTC futures will expire this Friday, but this depends largely on CME’s 455 million US dollars, because traders may close their positions before expiration, which happens on Friday afternoon UTC time 3:00.

Currently, the options market data is largely beneficial to the bulls, at least in the short term.

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