Bitcoin has stagnated, but this is why professional traders still expect to reach $80,000 by January


Choosing a time frame for technical analysis is always a tricky topic, but generally the longer the trend, the greater the chance that it will prevail. For example, those analyzed for 3 days of Bitcoin (Bitcoin) The chart will indisputably determine the pattern of the ascending channel starting in late June.

Bitcoin price in U.S. dollars on FTX. Source: Tradingview

Although Bitcoin hit an all-time high after the US consumer price soared to 6.2%, the bears can always find a way to prove their point is correct. Maximum inflation Increased sharply in 30 years.

However, data from on-chain analytics companies Glass node It shows that long-term investors have stopped net holdings and are now investing in altcoins. According to analyst Willian Clemente, this type of investor’s recent net sell-off was the first in six months, indicating a “sell strong” trend.

It’s worth emphasizing that the Bitcoin network is Upgrade on November 14 Improve scripting and privacy features. From a trading perspective, this creates a potential “sell news” event because the community largely anticipated this improvement.

Data shows that professional traders are neutrally bullish

To understand the bullish or bearish propensity of professional traders, we should analyze futures basis. This indicator is often referred to as the futures premium, and it measures the difference between the long-term futures contract and the current spot market level.

In a healthy market, the annualized premium is expected to be 5% to 15%. This situation is called a futures premium. This price difference is caused by sellers asking for more money to extend the detention time.

Bitcoin 3-month futures benchmark interest rate. Source: Laevitas.ch

Please note that it soared to 20% on November 9th because Bitcoin has risen by 14% in 3 days. As BTC pulled back 9% after hitting an all-time high of $69,100 on November 10, this brief period of excessive optimism subsided.

Currently, the basis index remains at a healthy 12%, indicating that these traders are confident.

Options traders are not so bullish

In order to eliminate the unique externalities of futures instruments, the option market should also be analyzed.

The 25% delta skew compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options. When fear prevails, this indicator will become positive because the premium for protective puts is higher than for call options with similar risks.

When greed is a general sentiment, the situation is just the opposite, causing the 25% delta skew indicator to shift to the negative zone.

The 25% delta of Deribit BTC options is skewed. Source: Laevitas.ch

The deviation index between -8% (greed) and +8% (fear) is considered neutral. September 29 was the last time the indicator exceeded this range, reaching +10%. Strangely, the same day marked the end of the 23-day bear market movement, and Bitcoin fell from $52,700 on September 6 to $41,000.

As for the current neutral 25% delta skew, it may be interpreted as a “glass half full” because professional traders somehow are not worried about the 95% gains so far this year.

Data shows that Bitcoin buyers have room for additional leverage. Ideally, prices will continue to trade within the rising channel that started in late June.

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