Bitcoin price may get rid of the $530 million GBTC unlock in July-analysis

Bitcoin (Bitcoin) After all, the crypto trading company QCP Capital stated that there won’t be much change after Grayscale’s huge 16,000 BTC unlock date.

In its latest Market update In the news released on Wednesday, analysts downplayed the popular theory that Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) will cause BTC price fluctuations in the next few weeks.

GBTC is not expected to have a “significant impact”

As Cointelegraph Report, GBTC will release or “unlock” a large amount of BTC after a six-month lock-up period.

Frequent events, the scale unlocked this month, have raised concerns that market volatility will increase, thus hindering potential recovery.

For example, the maximum unlock date of July 18 will have 16,240 BTC available, which is currently equivalent to US$530 million.

However, for QCP, there is almost no reason to worry.

It explained: “The upcoming unlock is for institutional holders who directly subscribed to GBTC 6 months ago-this batch includes all new Q1/2021 positions, mainly the last batch of ARK.”

“Clearly-we don’t want these unlocks [their] It will have a significant impact on the overall market outside of GBTC itself. Most of the large institutional positions previously subscribed in kind have been unlocked in advance and will not be sold at the current discount for the time being. “

At present, even GBTC unlocking events will all disappear before mid-August, further reducing the possibility of selling pressure.

GBTC unlock event chart. Source: Bybt

Macro factors may prevent a “bigger” BTC sell-off

However, the headache for QCP is that a larger Bitcoin sell-off may occur at the end of the year.

related: As indicators turn bullish, Bitcoin price may reach $85,000 within a few months — report

Consistent with historical precedents, there may be a classic explosive peak scenario at the end of the fourth quarter, followed by a recovery and rebound from the current level.

The analyst compared 2018 to 2018. The bottom of the bear market was $3,100, which was 84% ​​lower than the all-time high of $20,000 12 months ago.

“Now our trading plan follows the 2018 BTC simulation-we expect that the trading environment will be suppressed from here to August (short trading volume), and then may be implemented on the EIP-1559 main network (long spot, long phone) A rebound with support, followed by the Fed’s downsizing (selling cash, buying downside risk reversal) caused the fifth wave of greater selling in the fourth quarter,” they continued.

At the same time, how high BTC/USD rises is a hotly debated issue.One of the most optimistic and tried-and-tested models is inventory-to-flow, whose creator PlanB owns Say The December price of $135,000 is the “worst case scenario”.