Bitcoin released the third month of red candles, and its stock-to-flow price model echoes the beginning of 2019


Bitcoin (Bitcoin) The red candle was closed for the third consecutive month this week, as a popular analyst compared the price movement of BTC to January 2019.

in a tweet On July 1, PlanB stated that BTC/USD is now the furthest away from the estimated value of his stock-flow model in more than two years.

“Success or Failure” from Inventory to Flow

After the massive surrender event in May, Bitcoin price movements failed to regain lost ground and were about 50% lower than recent historical highs.

Therefore, the price model is undergoing severe tests-even if on-chain indicators start Fast bullish once again.

In the case of stock to flow, the average price of this halving cycle is required to be at least $100,000, and the situation becomes unstable.

The model is known for its accuracy, and since its inception, it has explained every twist and turn of the BTC price trend. However, the spot price is now close to the limit it can accommodate.

“Even for me, when the Bitcoin price is at the lower limit of the inventory-to-flow model, it’s always a little uneasy,” PlanB Accepted last week.

Nonetheless, given the possible changes in Bitcoin within a few months, there is little reason to worry about the stock flow becoming ineffective.

“The June closing price was $35,037…much lower than the January 2019 S2F model,” PlanB added on Thursday, which means that the relationship between the model and price is still “business as usual.”

The next 6 months (again) will determine the success or failure of S2F. “

Last time Bitcoin was so far from stock to flow, prediction The price on Thursday was 77,760 US dollars, and BTC/USD just emerged from the abyss of the 2018 bear market and fell to only 3,100 US dollars during this period.

Bitcoin inventory flow model as of July 1. Source: PlanB/Twitter

Waiting for correction?

As Cointelegraph ReportIn recent weeks, the “catch-up” of prices and on-chain indicators has become a decisive narrative.

related: coincidence?Bitcoin has highs and lows in the “Tuesday Turnaround” in June

Standards such as the popular Puell Multiple are Hint The price bottomed, in line with historical precedents, and then an implicit rebound.

Once completed, the continued transfer of mining rights from China should no longer be so worrying.Due to the turbulence, this weekend’s mining difficulty will see the biggest drop in history, which will Increase profits quickly Attract some new mining power for miners.