Bitcoin traders expressed mixed emotions about the next move in the price of BTC

Rumors say Amazon will accept cryptocurrency payments Earlier this week, there was a wave of bullish enthusiasm throughout the crypto market, but now this sentiment has begun to weaken because of Bitcoin (Bitcoin) The bulls face strong resistance at the $40,000 level.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and Transaction view On July 29th, due to the stagnation of Bitcoin’s price trend, the bears have successfully resisted multiple attempts to break through the $40,000 level to support and defend the area, and aggravated people’s concerns that the price might fall back to $35,000 to $30,000 last week. Concerns about the dollar range.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. source: Transaction view

The following are the views of analysts and investors on the recent developments in bitcoin prices.

The 21-week EMA marks the boundary between a bull market and a bear market

Bitcoin quickly rose from $31,000 to $40,925, pushing the price to near its 21-week exponential moving average. According to anonymous cryptocurrency Twitter analyst Rekt Capital, this level is widely regarded as a bull market indicator.

As shown in the above tweet, the 21-week EMA is currently close to the price level of $40,000, effectively becoming the “sand middle line” separating longs and shorts.

One of the responses to the aforementioned tweet provided a warning for overly bullish traders, as similar moves in the past were followed by lower lows and the continuation of bear market conditions.

BTC/USD 6-day chart. source: Twitter

As shown by the yellow circle in the above chart, the previous price breakout of the 21-week moving average led to a reversal, leading to retesting of lower lows in the following weeks and months.

Bitcoin whales are still greedy, while others are scared

A group of market participants who showed few signs of indecision are the Bitcoin Whales. They accepted Warren Buffett’s mantra of “fear when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful” by buying low-priced bitcoins when tapped by weak hands. go out.

According to data from the on-chain behavior analysis platform Santiment, the Whale Wallet has accumulated 130,000 BTC in the past 4 weeks because the transaction price of Bitcoin is less than 35,000 USD.

Since seeing such a large accumulation in the lower range of $30,000 to $35,000, some analysts have stated that the whales may try to orchestrate another price pullback so that they can continue to accumulate.

related: Bitcoin bulls control Friday’s $1.7B monthly option expiration

Long-term cycles bring hope

When the recent chaos prevails, it is sometimes best to take a step back and see where the market is and a larger picture of what is possible in the future.

According to anonymous Twitter user Inmortal UP ONLY, the four-year cycle of Bitcoin is currently about 65% in the bull market phase. Traders predict that the highest price will be $150,000, which will then be revised to $32,000.

The price of Bitcoin over a four-year period. source: Twitter

For traders and holders who are more willing to operate for a longer period of time, there is still a lot of optimism in the future. Experienced market participants know that the price changes in the past few months are part of the normal development of Bitcoin.

Ecoinometrics further confirmed the long-term view. He compared the current price trend of Bitcoin after the current halving with the performance of the previous two halvings.

As shown above, the current price of BTC is much lower than the average growth of previous cycles, which indicates that if BTC is to achieve a similar trajectory and reach a record high of more than $100,000, there is still some “catch-up”.

The views and opinions expressed here only represent the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading action involves risk, and you should conduct your own research when making a decision.