If the 2016 bull market halving repeats itself, Bitcoin will reach a peak of US$253,000 in this cycle, and Ethereum will reach US$22,000.

Bitcoin (Bitcoin) May be more than seven times higher than the last halving, but if history repeats itself, this number may increase by 300% or more.

Tracked by on-chain data sources Econometrics This month, just follow historical precedents and BTC/USD may exceed expectations.

Bitcoin: Compared to 2017, you haven’t seen anything

Since the halving in May 2020, Bitcoin is currently trading at 7.3 times its price. However, if the last halving cycle can pass, the price movement will not stop until it rises 30 times.

The data is related to the roughly four-year halving cycle shown by Bitcoin The same behavior Since its inception.

Although some traders are impatient, the current cycle is still closely related to the previous two cycles.

Taking 2017 as an example, the next BTC price peak may be as high as $253,800-even so, Bitcoin will still operate within the previously defined parameters.

Econometrics also includes data about Ether (Ethereum) And its performance relative to the Bitcoin halving cycle stage.

Compared with Bitcoin, the relative gains of the largest altcoins are much larger-its halving price is 120 times the peak value of the previous cycle in 2018.

Therefore, repeated performance will mean that the ETH/USD transaction price is $22,300-again within the range of possibility.

In terms of what The subsequent bear market It may bring that Bitcoin needs to bottom out at around $42,000 in order to replicate its post-2017 correction. On the other hand, the price of ETH will fall to $1,347.

The performance chart of Bitcoin and Ethereum after the halving.Source: Econometrics/Twitter

1 Bitcoin = 1 Bitcoin

If such sky-high numbers are incomprehensible, they are pale compared to what the well-known data analyst Willy Woo now believes.

related: Bitcoin retests support, traders predict that the price of BTC will fall to $55,000

in a tweet This week, Woo reiterated that this Bitcoin halving cycle will be unique in a specific way: it will eventually be priced in BTC instead of U.S. dollars, because it is meaningless to use anything to measure the value of BTC.

“What is my prediction for the top of this cycle? Because I think this is the last cycle. It makes us saturated. If it wins, we can’t add dollar value to it because things will be priced in BTC,” he Write.

“So the roof is easy to pick. It will be 1 BTC = 1 BTC.”

A separate post famous Compared with the supply of USD M2, how close the market value of Bitcoin is. He commented that the next five years-the remaining time of the current cycle and the beginning of the next cycle-will be “very interesting.”