PlanB is the idea behind the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model. He revealed that due to the recent downtrend in the market, he was “uncomfortable” with his famous price forecast.
In a recent Twitter poll, some of his followers questioned the stock flow (S2F) model that predicted the price of BTC with a certain degree of accuracy over the past two years.
This Anonymous analyst On June 21, he surveyed his followers and asked them what price they thought BTC would reach by the end of the year. He compared these results with similar surveys in March when market sentiment was overwhelmingly bullish.
Among the 124,595 respondents in the latest public opinion survey, 41% believe that the BTC price will remain below $100,000 by the end of the year, which will make S2F modelThis is two and a half times the 16% of people with laser eyes who were considered disappointed this year in the last poll.
What is different in 3 months!
41% now believe that Bitcoin will remain below $100,000 in 2021 (invalidating the S2F model), compared to 16% in March (when BTC was $55,000). pic.twitter.com/S9PKR8FSnb
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 22, 2021
PlanB, which originally released the price predictor in March 2019, released a message admitting that even he felt a little “uneasy” when the BTC price deviated from the model. However, the analyst pointed out that the model was previously successful again in March 2019 and March 2020 when the pandemic caused the global market to collapse, and it was successful again in September 2020.
Even for me, when the Bitcoin price is at the lower limit of the stock-to-flow model, it is always a little uneasy. It will stay (like March 2019 when I released S2F, or Covid in March 2020, or BTC staying at $10,000 in September 2020). Is this another buying opportunity? Or will S2F fail? pic.twitter.com/iIjTC2Ncy3
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 23, 2021
Preston Pysh, founder of The Investors Podcast Network, comment The model is difficult to explain the bad news that has accelerated the market downturn.
“What you mean is that your model does not account for more than 40% of the mining equipment that is banned, forced to be closed and relocated around the world…Heavy BTC treasury bonds/retained earnings.
The model is calculated based on the ratio of Bitcoin’s existing supply to the amount of bitcoin in circulation. Due to the four-year halving cycle, the scarcer the asset becomes, the higher the price. PlanB’s model predicts an average price of $288,000 for the next three years.
According to CoinGecko’s data, at the time of writing, Bitcoin has risen by 2.9% in the past 24 hours and is trading at $34,450. The asset is currently down 45% from the historical high of $64,800 set on April 14.