Professional traders are mildly skeptical about Bitcoin’s recent rebound to $50,000

The price of Bitcoin (Bitcoin) Back to the $50,000 level, there is no doubt that the 47% positive rebound in the past 30 days was driven by whale holdings, institutional adoption, and positive comments by regulators on possible EFT approvals.

Despite the positive news flow, the top traders of cryptocurrency exchanges and derivatives data seem indifferent to the recent rise to the resistance level of $50,000.

Crypto analyst Will Clemente emphasized the accumulation of addresses containing 1,000 to 10,000 BTC.

In other news, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo have Cooperation Cooperated with New York Digital Investment Group (a technology and financial services company) to provide Bitcoin funds for its wealth management clients.

Advised by Gary Gensler, Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission Be open to approving ETF products Bitcoin futures contracts regulated under the Investment Company Act of 1940.

The last good news is that Bitcoin’s hash rate has increased by 5% in the past week, reaching 125 exahash per second.Although 30% lower than the peak in mid-May before China’s ban, Prove the operational resilience of the network.

Futures premium remains stable

One of the best measures of professional trader optimism is the premium in the futures market. It measures the gap between the quarterly contract and the current spot price level. In a healthy market, the annualized premium is expected to be 6% to 14%, which is in line with stable currency loan interest rates.

However, there will be spot premiums during bearish market periods because the indicator disappears or i becomes negative.

OKEx September BTC futures contract premium. Source: Transaction view

In the past three weeks, the September contract held a 0.7% premium, which is equivalent to an annualized interest rate of 7%. Although it is far from reaching the negative range, it shows a lack of confidence, and the price of Bitcoin has risen by 27% over the same period.

Related: A comparison between the $50,000 BTC price and the Fed-5 things to watch for Bitcoin this week

Options market confirms downturn in market sentiment

In order to eliminate the unique externalities of futures instruments, the option market should also be analyzed. Whenever market makers and professional traders tend to be bullish, they will demand higher call option premiums. This trend leads to a delta skew of -25%.

Skew indicators that swing between -7% and +7% are usually considered neutral. On the other hand, whenever the downside protection cost is higher, the index will be higher than this range.

Deribit Bitcoin options 25% delta skew.Source: Lavitas

The 25% delta skew fails to show a significantly higher upside protection cost, which will cause the index to fall below the -7% threshold.

When the price of Bitcoin broke the “most important” $50,000 mark, the two main futures tools used by whales and arbitrage platforms did not reflect the crazy optimism shown by cryptocurrency Twitter and retail traders.

Therefore, there is strong evidence that top traders have no confidence in current levels of buying.

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