Bitcoin (Bitcoin) The recent rebound finally broke through and reached a new historical high that people generally expected. With September being left behind and “Uptober” high hopes, many analysts increasingly believe that this year will be the same as 2017.
In fact, the most recent one tweet Data from cryptocurrency analyst TechDev shows how close the price chart in 2021 is to the trend in 2017, and very close.
But is the trajectory of continuous rise really that simple?
Follow the indicator
Several pieces of data indicate similarities in the patterns between the two cycles.First of all, the Relative Strength IndexWhat traders use to identify overbought and oversold markets is following the same path as in 2017. In 2013 and 2017, each cycle showed two peaks, so if an event occurs, then we still need a second rebound.
TechDev’s ambitious prediction is that the BTC price of $200,000 is “coded”. South Korean trader Mignolet is also bullish, statement At the beginning of October, the decrease in trading volume from the spot market to the derivatives market was a positive market signal.At the same time, even in September, some Confirm that BTC has reached the 100,000 USD mark Even before the recent all-time high.
On-chain analytics company Glassnode recently released a Review The long-term holding model provides further credibility for the argument that another rebound is coming. The results show that tokens held for more than 155 days of statistically significant time only begin to enter the market after the price breaks through the previous historical high.The on-chain model is also showing a trend accumulation.
In short, long-term holders are ensuring that demand for BTC exceeds supply.
However, not everyone agrees that history is repeating itself. When we were asked if he thought 2021 was a mirror of 2017, Quantum Economics founder and CEO Marty Greenspan told Cointelegraph “not at all” and further added:
“In 2017, Bitcoin exceeded $1,000 per coin, and it snowballed gradually throughout the year, breaking through new highs, and reaching a peak in December. This year, we saw a large-scale frenzy at the beginning of the year, and then a gentle extension of this momentum. “
In support of this view, other indicators show more preliminary relevance. In 2017, BTC’s dominance dropped sharply in the first half of the year, and then recovered as it moved towards resistance of $20,000. Early 2021 Shows a similar pattern, And its dominance has been increasing since September. However, the direction of travel has not been indisputably upward.
The same is true for active addresses. By this time in 2017, active addresses have been on a nearly vertical upward trajectory. However, although the upward trend here is more pronounced than BTC’s dominance, its upward trend is more moderate.
Is it just that 2021 is not as enthusiastic for newcomers as it was in 2017?
It seems very possible. For example, the net transfers to and from the exchange have some similarities to the pattern of the last bull market. But overall, the market has performed more cautiously.
Micha Benoliel, co-founder and CEO of the Internet of Things network Nodle, pointed out that there are macro-level differences between 2017 and now that can explain the changes in these patterns. In an interview with Cointelegraph, he said that the situation is completely different:
“The coronavirus crisis has hit many of our economies, and the level of currency printed by the central bank to support our economy has reached a new high. Inflation is rising, so Bitcoin is a safe position to hedge what is happening.”
So, what can be gained from BTC?
Regardless of whether the present reflects the past in all aspects, even before this week’s stellar price trend, analysts are almost generally optimistic about the price of Bitcoin.
TechDev’s $200,000 forecast is at the high end of most forecasts, and analyst Filbfilb Set the price at 72,000 USD Until November.
Then there is PlanB, which is always reliable.The creator of the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model nail The closing price of the past two months has been within one percent, and the closing price in October is predicted to be US$63,000 and US$98,000 in November.He also reminded that BTC had reached $135,000 by December-no, because he Point out, Based on his popular inventory-to-flow model. According to him, if that is 100% accurate, then BTC has reached the $100,000 mark.
Instead, one can expect analysts to reveal details of new prices and/or on-chain data models that drive these extremely accurate monthly price forecasts.
How long can it last?
The 2017 run peaked in December, when the bullish sentiment reached almost $20,000. Although a minor breakthrough in early January brought new hope, it started to decline from there.
It is also worth noting that the last Bitcoin bull market before this was in 2013, when the price peak occurred at the end of November and early December a few weeks ago. Once again, the high point was followed by another rebound in early January.
If history does repeat itself, then December may mark the market entering a new phase of this halving cycle. Plan B Believe it will run longerHowever, based on his undisclosed on-chain model.
Of course, indicators and models cannot take into account ongoing news or other market events that may affect prices. So far this year, Bitcoin has withstood multiple regulatory blows from the Chinese government and Elon Musk’s antics, as well as the promotion of becoming a legal tender in El Salvador and gaining wider recognition by financial departments and institutions. The stagnant economy and investor interest in the rate of return of cryptocurrencies beyond the market also help maintain a solid level of support.
Although the news of the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) is currently pushing the market into the epic bull market, there is no guarantee that positive sentiment will continue to drive the market. Potential U.S. regulatory intervention and an increasing energy crisis seem likely to affect the continuing saga of mining profitability-these and other macroeconomic factors may derail the market.
Currency.com CEO Steven Gregory believes that the current ETF hype will trigger a feeling similar to (if not exactly the same) as 2017. He told Cointelegraph that when the first Bitcoin futures contract When being added to CBOE, people were generally excited: “Initially, there was a strong price increase, but in retrospect, it looks like the end of the BTC bull market.” But he cautioned against the cold end of the new crypto winter. And explain in detail:
“There may be some similarities between the 2017 bull market and the 2021 cycle; however, compared to 2017, the adoption rate is higher, the open interest is higher, and the utility of crypto is much greater than that of 2017.”
Although it cannot guarantee the result, the bullish sentiment seems very strong at this time. Either way, 2021 will be included in the encryption history books, becoming the most dynamic year in the colorful history of the industry.