The bear licks its paw and the price of Bitcoin soars to $46,000

Bitcoin (Bitcoin) Rose by 20% in 7 days, unexpectedly bringing the price to the highest level since May 18.Despite the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, prices have risen Janet Yellen reportedly supports a broader definition of crypto companies In the HR 3684 infrastructure bill currently under consideration by the U.S. Senate.

Although Bitcoin prices continue to soar, investors are worried that regulation may erase recent gains, but derivatives indicators show no signs of bear market confidence.

Coinbase’s Bitcoin price in U.S. dollars. Source: TradingView

The proposal requires digital asset transactions worth more than $10,000 to be reported to the U.S. Internal Revenue Service, including validators, miners, and protocol developers. However, Senator Cynthia Loomis and Senator Pat Tumi are lobbying to focus these requests exclusively on brokers and exchanges.

Holders keep “holding”, inflation is good for the crypto market

On-chain analytics company Glassnode highlight Despite the strong rebound, tokens held for 12 months or longer have not been moved, indicating a “holding behavior”. At the same time, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is a well-known indicator used to track volatility, trading volume, social media, dominance, and Google searches. From “moderate” to “greedy”.

The 74-point indicator touched on August 8 is the highest level since April 18, indicating that investors firmly believe that the bottom of the current cycle has passed. The index ranges from 0 (extreme fear) to 100, indicating maximum greed.

It is worth noting that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its July inflation report on Wednesday, and the market forecasts a 0.5% increase.The cryptocurrency market also reacted positively Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell It fails to explain how the consumer price index (CPI) growth of 5.4% year-on-year will fall.

There is almost no short activity in the margin and futures markets

Analyzing derivatives indicators helps confirm whether these positive expectations are reflected in the data of professional traders. The first is the Bitfinex margin long ratio, which changes dramatically when placing a bearish bet.

Bitfinex BTC margin long/total margin contract. Source: Bybt

The above chart shows that after a short period from July 9th to July 19th, Bitfinex’s margin long position rebounded to 90% or higher. However, the ratio has not declined since, indicating a lack of confidence in the bears.

Bitfinex margin traders are known for creating positions of 20,000 or higher BTC contracts in a short period of time, which shows the involvement of whales and large arbitrage platforms.

Next, analysts should evaluate the futures market by measuring the percentage of top customers who are betting on the upside (long) or downside (short). Remember, the outstanding amount of long and short contracts is always balanced in the futures market.

The top traders of Bitcoin futures aggregate long-short ratios. Source: Bybt

Bybt integrates futures market data from top traders in Binance, OKEx and Huobi. The current 1.14 indicator favors the long positions of 14% of the largest users of these exchanges. Therefore, there has been a major change in the past 12 hours because these traders were previously net shorts.

As Bitcoin broke through the $45,000 resistance level, both the Bitfinex margin and derivatives exchange futures markets showed a lack of confidence in the bears. This shows that the recent 20% rebound is well-founded and not just the result of a flash in the pan or a large number of liquidations.

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