Bitcoin (Bitcoin) Based on the striking similarity between its current trend and the trend from June 2019 to December 2019, it faces the prospect of reaching USD 47,500-50,000.
2019 Bitcoin Fractal
In detail, Bitcoin Up to approximately USD 14,000 On June 26, 2019, during the rest of this year, profit-taking sentiment and Bitcoin Cash hard fork triggered FUD, Facebook’s confrontation with regulators over its crypto project Libra, and the history of U.S. President Donald Trump and the Secretary of the Treasury. Steven Mnuchin’s Bitcoin’s threatening tone.
The flagship cryptocurrency fell to nearly $6,500 in December 2019. In doing so, it caused its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) to fall below its 200-day SMA. Technical chart experts call this phenomenon “Death cross“Think of its formation as a sign of long-term selling in the future.
However, at the same time, the Bitcoin bulls kept the price above the 50-week moving average. The one-day chart of the cryptocurrency shows that bears are trying to break the price below the 50-week moving average. But the bulls buy on dips every time.
The subsequent deliberate buying behavior near the 50-week moving average led to a strong upward rebound to the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which constitutes the Fibonacci retracement chart, from a swing high of approximately $14,000 to a high of approximately $6,500 Swing low.
The 2019 fractal also illustrates at least two bullish divergence scenarios, in which Bitcoin prices form lower lows and its daily relative strength indicator (price momentum oscillator) forms lower highs. It hints at the weakness of the general bearish momentum. It turns out that the price soared later.
In 2021, Bitcoin reconstructed the 2019 scenario in half. Initially, the cryptocurrency pulled back from its historical high of nearly 65,000 USD, putting BTC/USD at the same 50-week SMA support level of about 30,000 USD. At the same time, its decline enabled the death cross setting.
Bitcoin’s price trend in the past week has also Implied bullish divergence The scene is shown in the figure below.
TradingShot, a market analysis platform, famous The formation of a bullish divergence, coupled with a rebound from the 50-week SMA support level, may once again push the Bitcoin price to the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the current top-down Fibonacci retracement chart.
He explained: “Although Bitcoin is at a lower low (LL) and 1D RSI is at a higher low (HL), the support of 1W MA50 is key because it is being realized.”
“This is a bullish divergence, which also occurred from the end of October and November to the beginning of December 2019. This divergence is enough to start a rebound to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.”
In the chart provided by TradingShot, the 61.8% Fibonacci level appears near $47,500. At the same time, the other chart above shows a profit target close to $50,000.
These statements came at the end of Bitcoin’s second quarter with a 41% drop, the worst drop since the 43% sell-off in the fourth quarter of 2018.The recent decline in cryptocurrencies has taken clues from a series of negative fundamentals, including China’s repression In the crypto industry, global regulators have stepped up scrutiny and Elon Musk’s inverse Bitcoin tweet.
At the same time, after the Fed’s tough tone, demand for Bitcoin has also declined. The U.S. Central Bank announced that it may raise its benchmark interest rate before the end of 2023 to curb inflationary pressures, which coincided with the sharp drop in BTC/USD interest rates on and after June 16.
Despite strong headwinds, Bitcoin managed to rise above US$30,000, which is a psychological support level and is currently back above US$35,000. However, the same strong resistance level of $40,000 leaves the short-term bearish bias of the cryptocurrency intact.
ThinkMarkets analyst Fawad Razaqzada (Fawad Razaqzada) said: “People expect that if we do not have control of $40,000, the support will collapse and give way to a sharp rise to $20,000.” Tell the Wall Street Journal, And pointed out that it put Bitcoin at a crossroads in the third quarter.
“Have all the negative fundamentals been digested? We can’t be sure, but if there is, the bullish divergence of the 1D RSI will definitely show something.”
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