Bitcoin (Bitcoin) A new week has begun. This is the first time in more than a month that it has attempted to exceed $50,000. What will happen next?
After an encouraging weekend, BTC/USD is facing an increasingly bullish macro environment and a lot of expectations from analysts, who demand a game change in October.
They said that the fourth quarter should be different from anything that has not been seen in the current Bitcoin bull market, and the latest estimates even believe that there are more than six months to prove this.
With the first full week of “Uptober”, Cointelegraph studied the factors that may affect the market in the coming days.
The market prepares for the “turbulent journey” in October this year
Stocks may be flat in September, but the first few days of the new moon have shown that with a little bit of good news, you can see that Bitcoin outperforms the macro portfolio.
Although the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 5% in September, the closing price of BTC/USD that month was about US$4,000 lower than the closing price in August.
However, since October 1, the fate of the currency pair has firmly set a different tone, and contrary to expectations that the stock market will rebound at the expense of the U.S. dollar, positive headwinds for Bitcoin may continue to exist.
“The return in the fourth quarter of 2021 may be above average,” CNBC lead Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at research firm CFRA, said over the weekend.
“However, in the typical turbulent period in October, investors need to be cautious, and the volatility is 36% higher than the other 11-month average.”
Last week’s sentiment was driven by a vote on the U.S. Infrastructure Act, which will now be postponed until October 31 at the latest.
One of the reasons I am bullish #BTC: DXY chart
Live broadcast 2 days ago: “DXY hits the red box, it should be reversed and corrected as soon as possible”
This correction may take a while and is beneficial to cryptocurrency imo. pic.twitter.com/bn5LI8B8Gk
— Crypto_Ed_NL (@Crypto_Ed_NL) October 1, 2021
For the current situation, the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY). The reversal in recent days-traditionally a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin-has caught the attention of traders.
For the popular Twitter trader Crypto Ed, DXY correction is even possible Recent months Instead of weeks.
50,000 USD, but not yet
After breaking through $49,000 over the weekend, Bitcoin is clearly preparing to hit the most important $50,000 mark-but it hasn’t completely over yet.
Despite the bullish impulse, Sunday’s latest upside breakout ended with a severe rejection and a subsequent drop of nearly $2,000.
However, commentators generally believe this is a bearish signal and believe that any BTC price weakness will be temporary.
Among them was Cointelegraph writer Michaël van de Poppe, who repeated his recent theories about brief consolidations and new bullish breakouts that day.
Yes, almost, #Bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/Bhbm0SVYT2
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 4, 2021
At the same time, trader Pentoshi likened this situation to the activity in the fourth quarter of last year, when Bitcoin needed to beat $20,000 instead of $64,500.
“I really don’t care about time being short. I care about the macro market structure,” he Said In the accompanying Twitter comment.
Falling or not, BTC/USD also closed at a stable weekly closing price of US$48,234-in doing so, the trend of the previous two weeks was completely cancelled.
#BTC It has risen by 20% since breaking the ascending triangleBitcoin #encryption #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/mNXy48fAqR
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 3, 2021
Traders and analysts Rekt Capital also pointed out that Pi-period 111-day moving average holdings acted as support, driving the recent rebound.
The new hash rate hits a record high
You can never be sure, but it is estimated that Bitcoin’s hash rate has reached a record high.
Less than five months after China’s regulatory crackdown triggered the massive migration of miners and equipment, data sources show that basic indicators have completely compensated for the turbulence.
Not only that, the hash rate may even reach 200 exahashes per second (EH/s) in recent days-a full 32 EH/s higher than the previous peak.
Measuring hash rate is difficult-Bitcoin’s dedicated mining capacity cannot be accurately determined, so any description can only be a guess.
Although different sources are very different- CoinWarz 201 EH/s was recorded on October 2, while Pool statistics Currently only 138 EH/s is shown-the overall trend is beyond doubt.
The fundamentals of the Bitcoin network are firmly in the “rising only” mode, reflecting the long-term belief of miners in profitability.
“Earlier this year, China expelled nearly 90% of the country’s Bitcoin miners. The hash rate has dropped by about 50% as a result,” Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano Comment On the data.
“Only a few months later, we are almost back to the highest point in history. Economic incentives have further promoted the decentralization of the network.”
As Cointelegraph Report last week, difficulty This week will also challenge the record, the next adjustment may be the seventh consecutive increase.
This has never happened since 2019, and the difficulty is still about 20% lower than the historical high in May.
As we all know, Bitcoin’s most famous analyst called for BTC price movements to perform well in the fourth quarter.
For PlanB, the creator of the stock-to-flow model series, Bitcoin’s “worst case” has been achieved Run for two months.
His base price is estimated to be $63,000 from now to the end of October, and the closing price in November is as high as $98,000.
However, he said that the situation for Bitcoin bulls is still more optimistic in view of the downsizing.In his latest stock circulating cross assets (S2FX) renew, PlanB exhibited approximately 50% price behavior during its bull market cycle, opening the door to a rapid rise.
“International Maritime Organization we are on the way, and there is no sign of weakness (red). Please note that the color overlay is not a few months of halving, but an on-chain signal,” he commented on the chart.
“My guess is: the second phase of the bull market has at least six months left.”
Bitcoin still needs to keep up with daily estimates of inventory flows, and spot prices have deviated from record percentages in recent months.
Monday, according to monitoring resources S2F multiple, The trading price of BTC/USD should be slightly higher than 100,000 USD.
Bitcoin ETF pricing
As Cointelegraph Report, This month, it is very likely that a certain Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) will be approved by the U.S. regulator.
related: The 5 most noteworthy cryptocurrencies this week: BTC, LUNA, ATOM, XTZ, AXS
Futures-based ETFs may be approved first, because the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) “sounded the alarm” on traditional products’ decisions before at least November.
For some time, the market has been pricing in this landmark moment, but a decision may subvert market sentiment and thereby affect the current status of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GTBC).
Despite price movements in recent weeks, the fund’s discount to spot prices is still large, currently hovering around 14%.
Grayscale has stated that it intends to convert its flagship cryptocurrency fund into an ETF when circumstances permit, and data shows that the business is definitely not suffering.
“Compared with its USD-based Bitcoin fund peers, GBTC is completely dominant in trading volume,” Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas famous last week.
“If it is an ETF, it will also be ranked in the top 5% of the most active.”