The “conservative” BTC supply shock indicator now indicates that the cost of Bitcoin should be at least $55,000


Bitcoin (Bitcoin) According to a measure of its so-called “supply shock”, the cost of each coin is at least $55,000.

in a tweet On September 5th, analyst Willy Woo emphasized his “conservative” price estimate for BTC/USD.

Bitcoin price catch-up indicator

Although Bitcoin has not established $50,000 as a firm support, the indicators on the chain have far exceeded Firmly bullish a period of time.

Now, the so-called “supply shock valuation model” has also been added, giving a conservative price estimate of $55,000.

The supply shock is simply the unavailable BTC supply divided by the available BTC supply. This is more in-depth than it seems at first glance, because Woo uses it to effectively “wave the magic wand and gauge investor intentions even before bidding and bidding.”

He explained in a statement: “From a demand and supply perspective, investors who do not intend to sell are on the demand side, while investors who are willing to sell are on the supply side.” Blog post last month.

The valuation model also uses an algorithm to compare supply and demand similar to the current situation, thereby generating a fair price estimate.

Woo admitted in a tweet: “As one of the SS indicators, the exchange SS is now higher than the highest level in history, so it is conservative, so it is impossible to look back to the past.” It reached a record level.

The attached chart records when the BTC price changes with or without any changes in the investor’s intention.

Bitcoin supply shock valuation model.Source: Willy Woo/Twitter

The first obstacle for bulls is $50,000

Since 2021 is the year after the block subsidy halving event, Bitcoin supply shock is a frequently used phrase in the current market.

related: More like “shock flow”-as mysterious buyers snap up supplies, BTC prices trigger a bull market

Miners now only unlock 6.25 BTC per block. So far, Bitcoin has performed well Roughly the same Until the previous halving year-2013 and 2017.

Nevertheless, the conservative minimum target of $55,000 is still higher than another set of monthly closing prices set by the analyst PlanB, who speculates that there will be Lowest monthly closing price US$43,000.

However, since then, the upward momentum has really recovered and Bitcoin will close in 2021 At least 135,000 USD.

At the time of writing this article, BTC/USD is trading at $50,200 and has been in a narrow range throughout the weekend.

BTC/USD 1-day candlestick chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView