The creator of the BTC price model stated that the second phase of the Bitcoin bull market has begun.

Bitcoin (Bitcoin) A new high of US$67,000 was set last week, which opened the possibility of reaching US$100,000 by the end of this year.

According to PlanB, popular creators Inventory-to-flow (S2F) model, The retracement of Bitcoin from the price of $60,000 is called the “second leg” of the long-term bull market.

In doing so, the anonymous analyst cited S2F Bitcoin is expected to continue to rise And reached 100,000-135,000 US dollars by the end of this year.

The price prediction model insists that due to “Halved,” An event that occurs every four years cuts the issuance rate of BTC in half, instead of its 21 million supply cap.

Bitcoin after the halving in 2012, 2016 and 2020. Source: PlanB

It is worth noting that so far, Bitcoin has experienced three halvings in 2012, 2016 and 2020.

Each event reduced the new supply rate of cryptocurrency by 50%, followed by a significant increase in the price of BTC.For example, the first two halvings prompted Bitcoin price Increases were over 10,000% and 2,960% respectively.

The third halving caused the price to jump from US$8,787 to US$66,999, an increase of 667.50%. So far, S2F is basically accurate in predicting the price trajectory of Bitcoin. As shown in the figure below, this makes the bulls have higher hopes that the rebound after Bitcoin’s halving will make its price exceed the $100,000 mark. .

Bitcoin S2F as of October 26. Source: PlanB

PlanB noticed Earlier this year Bitcoin will reach $98,000 in November and $135,000 in December this year, adding that the only factor preventing cryptocurrencies from reaching six-figure values ​​is the “black swan event” that the market has never seen in the past decade .

Crash after 80%

Despite the high price forecast, Bitcoin should still see a sharp correction in the future. PlanB believes that based on the same S2F model, the next crash will evaporate at least 80% of Bitcoin’s market value.

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“Everyone wants the super cycle or’super Bitcoinization’ to begin immediately, and we won’t have a major crash after the next all-time high,” the analyst Tell Unchained,Add to.

“Although I hope we will not see that crash, I think we will. I think we will now be controlled by greed and fear… and we will see a negative 80% after we reach a couple of 100,000 dollars .”

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

But not everyone thinks that the next revision will be as dramatic as before. Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital Said In mid-October, the next Bitcoin price drop will be less than 80% because of the continued decline in sales sentiment after each halving cycle.

Last week, Bitcoin (Bitcoin) After rising 53% so far in October, it hit a new high of approximately US$67,000. But the new high prompted traders to take profits, Led to a retest of the $60,000 support level.

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