The data shows that after the BTC whale bought the index, the bitcoin price in the card was $83K


As Bitcoin (Bitcoin) After testing the $43,000 support level for the third day in a row, the whale bought the decline on the derivatives exchange. Although the price has not changed significantly, the Bitcoin futures premium has reached its lowest level in six months. This indicator matches on December 11, 2020, when Bitcoin reached a low of $17,600 just 10 days after hitting a record high of $19,915.

Bitcoin/USD price on Coinbase in December 2020. Source: TradingView

In December 2020, derivatives trading triggered a 95% rebound within 23 days, bringing Bitcoin to a new high of $42,000. Except for the bottom of the futures premium, Rumors that U.S. regulations may be harmful In both cases, they played a central role in the market downturn.

Regulatory uncertainty has once again become the focus of attention

This time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen (Janet Yellen) statement At the May 4th “Washington Plaza” CEO Council Summit:

“Involving money laundering, the “Bank Secrecy Law”, the use of digital currency for illegal payments, and consumer protection.”

May 6, Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission Gary Gensler enters Congress Provide more regulatory ideas for the encrypted space. Gensler said:

“Currently, there are no market regulators around these cryptocurrency exchanges, so there is actually no protection against fraud or manipulation.”

On May 11, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued an investor warning, pointing out the haze of regulators. Risks of mutual funds owning Bitcoin futures.

OKEx Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized premium, December 2020. Source: Skew

As Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $19,915 on December 1, and the futures premium soared above 15%, the premium responded to the price correction. Although the 8% low seems to be close to last month’s average, this is very modest considering that Bitcoin has risen by 90% in two months.

Note that once the $17,600 level proved its strength, the futures premium soared to 15%, indicating optimism.

OKEx Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized premium, May 2021. Source: Skew

The current situation is different because the market has been too optimistic from the beginning. However, with Bitcoin falling by 26%, the situation has changed dramatically in the past week. The move resulted in the futures premium reaching its lowest level in six months of 8%.

Whales are actively buying under $43,000

However, the bearish sentiment on May 17 lasted for a short time, because the whales finally decided that it was time to buy the bottom.

The long and short indicators of top traders are calculated based on the customer’s comprehensive position, including margin, perpetual contracts and futures contracts. By collecting data from multiple markets, this indicator can have a more comprehensive understanding of the effective net positions of professional traders.

OKEx’s Bitcoin long-short ratio for top traders.Source: Bibert

OKEx’s top traders rose from a long-short ratio of 1.62 on May 16 to a peak of 2.74 as Bitcoin tested the $43,000 support level in the early morning of May 17. The data shows that the long positions of whales and market makers have almost tripled. This is very uncommon than shorts.

Although their bullish bet still exists, it marks the complete pattern of the previous week.Business Intelligence Corporation MicroStrategy also mined $10 million worth of Bitcoin The average price is $43,663.

Although it is too early to announce that the correction phase is over, there seems to be enough evidence to prove that the futures premium has bottomed out and whales are buying strongly below $43,000.

If history repeats itself, and 95% gains follow, Bitcoin could reach $83,000 in mid-June.

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