Bitcoin (Bitcoin) The bulls have no reason to celebrate the 25% rebound in the past 9 days.After testing the $31,000 support level on June 8, the optimism of top traders faded and Even the recent high of $41,000 cannot raise their expectations.
Contrary to market sentiment, the UK Financial Conduct Authority stated Significant increase in cryptocurrency ownership domestic. A consumer survey found that 2.3 million adults in the UK now hold crypto assets, up from 1.9 million last year.
Another theory that proved to be wrong was to assume that whales had been selling, causing the price of Bitcoin to stay below $47,000 for 31 days.Contrary to this narrative, the data from Santiment shows the address Holding positions of 100 to 10,000 BTC increased by USD 367 billion At that time.
Regardless of the long-term bullish sentiment of investors, the $520 million BTC option will expire at 8 am UTC on June 18. A more granular view provides a different picture.
Neutral call (buy) options provide buyers with upward price protection, while holding protective put (sell) options is the opposite. By measuring the risk exposure of each price level, traders can gain insight into the positioning of bullish or bearish traders.
The total number of contracts scheduled to expire on June 18 is 13,400, which is 520 million U.S. dollars based on Bitcoin’s current price of 39,000 U.S. dollars. The bulls hold 1,240 contracts, which is equivalent to $48 million, but this depends on the price of Bitcoin on Friday morning.
Bulls lead by $60 million above $38,000
Although the initial picture appears to be bullish, it must be taken into account that the $44,000 call (buy) option is almost worthless and there are less than 16 hours left before the expiration date. When these bullish contracts are ignored, a more balanced situation occurs.
Fewer than 2,200 call options are priced at $38,000 or less, and open positions are $84 million. At $40,000, another 1,000 neutral to call options became active, increasing the open interest to $128 million.
On the other hand, protective put options of US$38,000 and higher are worth 750 contracts and valued at US$28 million. This gives the bulls a comfortable lead of US$60 million and an incentive to increase the price above US$40,000 and the spread to US$120 million. In this case, 99% of protective put options will become worthless.
The bears need to wait until the last minute to save their position
The option contracts of Deribit, OKEx, and Bit.com happen to happen at 8:00 AM, so there is no benefit in trying to manipulate the price before the event. However, the bears may have conceded and focused their efforts on the monthly expiration date of June 25. On the other hand, the bulls have strong incentives to increase profits on June 17.
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