Bitcoin (Bitcoin) After the strong earnings of the weekend ended in a retracement, start a new week in familiar areas-what else?
With another rise to close to $36,000, the largest cryptocurrency is showing signs of strengthening, but the old resistance level still exists.
The situation is complicated-the continued migration of miners and related price movements have shocked many people, and Bitcoin’s most accurate forecasting tool is undergoing a real test.
However, with the fundamentals finally showing signs of life, the bulls may finally have something to celebrate.
Cointelegraph considered five factors when talking about BTC/USD this week.
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Stock records and oil disputes
As the S&P 500 index hit a record high for 7 consecutive days, another creepy “Roaring Twenties”-style sentiment appeared in the major markets this week.
In recent weeks, encouraging economic data in the United States and the Federal Reserve’s continued intervention have pushed the stock market higher.
Chris Iggo, chief investment officer of core investments at AXA Investment Managers, headquartered in the Netherlands, said: “The market has set prices for the continuation of scenarios that cannot be better constructed. to sum up In a note cited by Bloomberg.
An interesting twist is oil, which is now at the center of another OPEC+ production line. It itself is increasing, but it raises concerns about how much fuel will be available in August.
As the U.S. dollar stabilizes, it seems that the stock narrative is a possible driver for the future, a situation that has traditionally helped Bitcoin price movements.
The fundamentals are not out of danger
Bitcoin may have seen it The biggest difficulty reduction ever This weekend, but even this may not be enough to stabilize the boat.
Saturday’s decline was 27.94%, easily surpassing the previous decline, reflecting the impact of the Chinese war on Bitcoin network mining.
According to the data of monitoring resources Bitcoin NetworkHowever, subsequent adjustments may show even greater declines.
Since difficulty adjustment can only be estimated before it actually occurs, and a lot of changes occur during the difficulty period every two weeks, it is difficult to say how much the indicator needs to be reduced to reflect the true state of the network.
Given the recent decline, mining is now more economically attractive to many current and potential participants. Therefore, in the next 13 days, more miners are likely to start operations, thereby increasing the hash rate, which may reduce the need to further reduce the difficulty.
Take a look Computing activity The last few days have shown that a U-turn may have occurred, and the hash rate has soared above 90 exahashes (EH/s) per second, compared with the low of 83 EH/s last week.
However, at the time of writing, Bitcoin is expected to reduce the difficulty by another 28.68%.
“After yesterday’s record difficulty adjustment of -27.9%, the difficulty of Bitcoin is now similar to the level after last year’s halving event,” the popular Twitter account Dilution-proof famous On Sunday, next to it is the annotated difficulty chart.
“However, the price is 263% higher. This shows how profitable Bitcoin mining has become for efficient miners.”
BTC price movement scares $36,000
There is at least a good time for the difficulty to fall-once it enters, the Bitcoin price trend has been gratifyingly boosted, and it has risen to the upper limit of its trading range.
For the remainder of the weekend, BTC/USD encountered little resistance, rising by about 5% before retracement.
What can further restrain enthusiasm? For popular analyst Rekt Capital, the two now infamous moving averages (MA) may become bears’ best friends in the coming days.
As Cointelegraph Report, BTC/USD had a “death cross” event last month. This refers to the 50-day moving average crossing the 200-day moving average, which is traditionally regarded as a bearish signal.
In fact, “death crosses” don’t always cause prices to fall, but their reputation remains solid this year.
Now, if Bitcoin reaches any moving average and the current price is higher than the spot price, the current price strength may become a reality.
“Once BTC can clear $36,000… the next major resistance will be the ~38,000 USD area,” Rekt Capital Explanation On Sunday, add a summary chart.
“This is not only the high point of the macro-integration range where Bitcoin is now…but the two $BTC Death Cross EMAs (50 blue and 200 black) may also act as confluence resistance there.”
Trader Crypto Ed also caveat On Monday, the weekend’s position will eventually be lost again.
“A full retracement is coming,” he said, and believes that the market needs to “appropriately retest” the lower levels to drive a truly bullish recovery.
BTC/USD retreated from a high of 35,900 US dollars to 34,000 US dollars, which remained at this level at the time of writing.
Volume failed to boost the bull market
For those who pay attention to a classic market feature-volume, the weekend’s rebound is doubtful.
Despite the rapid growth, the number of supporting them is still very small. Therefore, their reliability and ability to sustain themselves have been questioned from the beginning.
On Monday, on-chain monitoring service CryptoQuant pointed out that transaction volume is still declining, indicating a lack of interest from major potential buyers.
“Both inflows and outflows are drying up as the market’s trading volume increases. It seems that whales are keeping low without taking much action,” the company said in a statement. Blog post.
“Any party pushing to the market is very likely to trigger a relatively large reaction to the price.”
However, on Saturday, statistician Willy Woo pointed out Rise instantly In Bitcoin entities holding large amounts of BTC-this is a classic signal of interest to whales. This is after the downward difficulty adjustment.
As Cointelegraph Report, Other investor profiles have also begun to use alternate bitcoin supplies, especially the so-called “Rick Astley” type, or hodler at the end.
“Mr. Astley said’shorts will be rejected’,” Woo comment And other supporting data.
Investor confidence is slowly returning
How pessimistic are ordinary Bitcoin market participants now?
This problem has traditionally been Crypto Fear and Greed IndexIf you believe this week’s readings, things may not be so bad.
On Monday, Fear and Greed reached its highest score in nearly three weeks-29/100. When this happened last time, BTC/USD was rising above the local peak of 41,000 USD in June.
Fear & Greed uses a basket of factors to evaluate the sentiment of the cryptocurrency market to help determine when an asset is overbought or oversold at a specific price.
Its bullish top tends to reach 95/100 or higher, which leaves enough room for Bitcoin to grow before it “extremely greedy” enters and triggers a rout.
Index saw Low point 10/100-“Extreme Fear”-before the rebound on June 22.
