Bitcoin (Bitcoin) Is at its best-almost literally-because it has entered a new week from an all-time high in less than 15%.
A classic confounding factor laid the foundation for the fourth quarter ending, and analysts are now confidently comparing it to the bull markets of 2013 and 2017.
Decoupling from macro market trends and the U.S. dollar, Bitcoin once again looks like the gold substitute investors want-while altcoins are slipping away.
As “Uptober” is still in its second full week, Cointelegraph will study the possible BTC price trends in the next few days.
Altcoins lag behind “Bitcoin Season”
For Bitcoin traders, things looked optimistic at the beginning of the week-the four-month highs of last week are back.
Except for a strange anomaly on the exchange Bitstamp, it saw an instant drop to $51,000, and a quiet weekend retained its previous earnings.
It seems that the final resistance below the all-time high of $64,500 is being attacked, and the price movement of BTC pleases market participants.
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 11, 2021
However, there is another aspect behind Bitcoin’s strength-it can keep rising further in the short term.
The underperformance of altcoins led to the prediction of a “bitcoin season” before some form of “altcoin season” reappeared later.As Cointelegraph reported, this may not be By 2022.
Every 1% = Approximately 10% decrease in ratio to BTC
Volatility will be large in the coming week, ETF is not conducive to high-price exposure
— Pentoshi will not call you. Hate Dm. DM is a scam (@Pentosh1) October 10, 2021
This situation is particularly obvious in Ether (Ethereum) Is the altcoin with the largest market value, and its current exchange rate against BTC is at its lowest point since early August.
“ETH/BTC collapsed and Bitcoin consolidated,” Cointelegraph writer Michaël van de Poppe Summarize Sunday night.
“I assume that Bitcoin will continue to exist, and altcoins have not yet succeeded.”
Nevertheless, Van der Pope Add to The controversial cyclical price peak of ETH/USD is as high as $20,000, and the time frame is the first quarter of next year.
“you are here”
In terms of BTC price behavior, it takes a lot of effort to please Bitcoin users.
Anyone who has used the cryptocurrency Twitter for a long time knows that even the most unexpected trend of BTC/USD can only satisfy market sentiment before investors ask for more.
Last week was Without exception — Bitcoin rose by $3,000 in a matter of minutes, rose by $5,000 in an hour and hit a four-month high, but a few days later, commentators complained that it was “boring.”
The expected pressure on Bitcoin in 2021 is obvious, that is, one year after the third halving, and therefore the deadline for the cyclical price halving.
How far the price of BTC can rise is a hotly debated issue, and some people think that $200,000 or even $300,000 is “program“Others have lost their confidence, claiming that this cycle cannot be like the first two.
However, comparing the years after the halving, there seems to be an almost unanimous judgment on Bitcoin’s opportunities-the main rise has not yet begun.
For example, the fall below $40,000 in September corresponds to similar events in 2013 and 2017. These events occurred before the liftoff and acted as the “ultimate” bear market trap.
— TechDev (@TechDev_52) October 9, 2021
Superimposing the price performance in 2021 with the price performance in 2017 will also produce Striking similarities.
All these survey results from the popular trading account TechDev show that this year’s peak is an order of magnitude higher than last year. Analysts believe that, whether technical or not, the six-digit high is almost logically guaranteed.
At the same time, these similarities are nothing new, and various sources map the degree of consistency between prices and the previous half year. Full year 2021.
In one day, 31 billion US dollars settled
During the 2020-2021 bull market, a lot of attention is focused on Bitcoin’s network foundation, but there is more.
With the hash rate and difficulty almost recovering and approaching all-time highs, new data shows that other aspects of Bitcoin are making their own records.
This week, it’s about network capacity and expansion-all on the chain, before Lightning Network Even being taken into account.
As famous Analyst Kevin Rooke (Kevin Rooke) said that one day last week Bitcoin was worth more than 30 billion U.S. dollars.
“$31 billion. This is the value of Bitcoin’s blockchain settlement in one day this week,” he commented.
“This is a record high for Bitcoin. Since the start of 2020, the settlement value has increased by 40 times.”
The impressive shift is accompanied by cost consistency-Bitcoin transaction fees Keep low.
Questions about GBTC
The countdown to this week’s decision on the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) continues to be exciting-but has the approval been “priced”?
Although the U.S. regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), has postponed the deadline for determining the fate of spot Bitcoin ETFs to November, this month will see a “yes” or “no” for futures-backed ETF products.
The latter drew praise and criticism from people Equal, And the fate of existing institutional bitcoin tools is also up in the air, especially the market heavyweight Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
With the rapid increase in the price of Bitcoin, GBTC continues to trade at a substantial discount to the spot price, and this trend has only deepened in recent weeks.
Analysts believe that if ETFs are approved, more funds will flow into them, well before Grayscale itself converts its funds into ETFs.
For macro analyst Lyn Alden, it seems unlikely that the so-called “gray premium” will return to the neutral zone.
“I doubt it, but if there is a huge rebound in Bitcoin and there are no ETFs available at the time, this is not impossible,” she said. Responded When asked during a weekend social media discussion.
Bitcoin’s performance surpassed the basic situation I wrote in 2020, partly because GBTC neutral arbitrage trading drove temporary additional demand.
— Lin Alden (@LynAldenContact) October 9, 2021
Alden is updating last year’s research, in which she emphasized the role of GBTC in Bitcoin price movements. She said that this phenomenon is relatively non-existent now, which in turn is beneficial to the sustainability of BTC price performance.
For those who are worried that the return to four-month highs will be accompanied by market instability, please think again.
According to sentiment indicators Crypto Fear and Greed Index, The latest BTC price increase is firmly rooted in sustainable growth.
This is in contrast to normalcy-moving to highs, especially near historical highs, often sees the index reaching “extreme greed”. This in turn shows that the market is unsustainable and can easily destabilize, triggering price adjustments.
So far, although it is close to $57,000, Fear & Greed’s index is only 71/100-“greedy” rather than “extremely greedy”, and it is far from the classic top zone of 95/100 and higher.
Nevertheless, October caused a major change in market sentiment. For example, just two weeks ago, on September 30, the index was 20/100-“Extreme Fear”.