Bitcoin (Bitcoin) The drop below $29,000 on June 22 shook the market, and a few analysts called for May fall below 20,000 USD.
Many traders on Crypto Twitter are focused on the formation of a death cross on the Bitcoin chart, which is a sign that the price may fall again, but analysts with the opposite view see this chart pattern as a signal that it’s time to act. . Buy dipping sauce.
Ultimate thread #BTC Death crossover and loop data analysis
1) historical #Death Cross until #goldencross Time (in days) + maximum price fluctuation since the start of Deathcross:
2011: 180 days, -59%
2014: 90 days, +83%
2014: 390 days, -63%
2018: 360 degrees, -55%
2019: 105 days, -29%
2020: 50 days, +66% pic.twitter.com/8JmbtnFLGJ
— VenturefoundΞr (@venture Founder) June 17, 2021
Three reasons why some traders still see a bull market in Bitcoin include the emergence of the “spring” phase of the Wyckoff accumulation model, stable purchases by long-term holders, and the formation of a bear market trap similar to the move in the golden ratio. In previous bull markets Seen it.
Wyckoff model says spring has arrived
In the past month, the Wyckoff accumulation model has been all the rage among cryptocurrency analysts because Bitcoin price movements have been tracking the model relatively closely since the May 19 sell-off.
Wyckoff Cumulative Model-Spring Test
It seems to be a possibility. We have just reached a low of $28,800…If this model works, we will now enter the final phase of the recovery. Let’s see how it works. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/stuWJRWWoL
-Kevin Svenson (@KevinSvenson_) June 22, 2021
As can be seen from the above tweet, Bitcoin fell below $29,000 and then recovered above $32,000. Some analysts believe that the “spring test” of phase C of the Wyckoff model has been completed. This will indicate that the bottom is in the current correction phase and is now beginning to climb turbulently.
If it turns out that this is true, BTC will enter stage D, also known as “Marking stage“Establish a new uptrend and “call back to new support to provide buying opportunities”, which is usually seen as an opportunity to buy on dips.
related: As a century-old financial model predicted the Bitcoin crash, Bitcoin fell below $36,000
In Phase D, as the cycle ends, it is expected to break to a new high and prepare to restart after the uptrend is exhausted.
Long-term holders are still bullish
Another bullish sign cited by analysts is the steady accumulation of long-term holders.
If you are scared, just remember something #Bitcoin Long-term holders are doing it now. Don’t let vola take you to your head, think about it in the long run.https://t.co/koCh7pfGf9 pic.twitter.com/bAba8DUWo2
-Yann & Jan (@Negentropic_) June 22, 2021
Bitcoin’s long-term net holder position shows that investors actually started to regain their holdings in late April, and they began to significantly increase their activity in May as the price fell to between $30,000 and $40,000. On-chain data shows that these investors continue to buy in the recent decline.
This activity shows that more experienced crypto traders are familiar with Bitcoin’s market cycle and believe that the current range is a good level for opening long positions when fear is high and sentiment is low.
Those who risked buying assets in the event of price and sentiment plummeting received the greatest return, and these are exactly the conditions in which contrarian traders thrive.
The golden ratio lurks a bear trap
third Imagine Some analysts are concerned that the current price trend has set a bear market trap, which echoes the trend seen in the previous cycle, including a pullback to the 1.618 golden ratio expansion level, and then a breakthrough to a new high.
From this perspective, the market is currently in the right The four psychological stages of asset bubblesAfter the bear market trap occurs, Bitcoin will enter a frenzy stage. Extensive media reports will attract the attention of new market participants, and then they will chase the price to rising heights “based on the illusion that assets will continue to rise forever”.
The previous call for Bitcoin price may reach 200,000 USD by the third or fourth quarter The veteran trader Peter Brandt’s prediction in 2021 that its value will exceed the $100,000 mark this year is by no means an isolated case, which shows that the long-awaited peak has not yet arrived.
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