Bitcoin (Bitcoin) After the first monthly closing of more than $60,000, the new week and new month began to fluctuate-what’s next?
After the much-anticipated “Uptober” ends, the bulls look forward to the next phase of November offering their hopes (and sometimes promises) that the price of BTC will soar as never before.
The forecast is different at different times. The monthly closing price of BTC/USD this month may be close to 100,000 USD, but it will also fall to close to 50,000 USD.
With everything playable and solid buyer support held above $50,000, Cointelegraph researched the factors that may help shape Bitcoin’s price trend in the coming week.
October 2021 becomes the best month since 2020
Regardless of what happens next, market participants are in a celebratory mood this week as Bitcoin set its highest monthly closing price in history.
Bitcoin’s monthly closing high
— Will Clement (@WClementeIII) November 1, 2021
Not only US$60,000, but US$61,000 is now the target to be defeated in November.
However, Bitcoin is by no means “only rising” in the short term. After the close of the market on Sunday, there was a clear downward movement-falling to $59,500-and then again unexpectedly exceeded $62,000 a few hours later.
Fans of PlanB’s “worst case” price predictions may be a bit nervous, and these predictions require at least $63,000 at the end of October.
Although it is more or less on the right track, for the series to continue to maintain its historical accuracy, a payment of $98,000 will be required by the end of the month.
However, for PlanB himself, the results are very satisfactory.
The new monthly closing price of $61K in October! ✅
Okay okay, 3% rounding error… is close enough for me
Next target: November> 98,000 USD, December> 135,000 USD pic.twitter.com/7LSnQBYJ33
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 1, 2021
“Yes, Bitcoin may not close above $63,000 this month,” Cointelegraph writer Michaël van de Poppe also Add to Regarding the situation.
“However, @100trillionUSD’s hit rate on the stock-to-flow model is much better than your trading performance, so I won’t bake him at all. The $61,000 Bitcoin is just as good and close enough.”
After a correction from overnight lows, the trading price of BTC/USD was approximately US$62,000.Well, October is its Best month Since December 2020, the rate of return has been slightly below 40%.
The difficulty has increased for the 8th time in a row
Those looking for something that is truly in “up only” mode need only look at the basic principles of the Bitcoin network.
this week, difficulty There will be an eighth consecutive positive adjustment-something that has never happened since 2018.
Reflecting the increasingly competitive mining sector, the difficulty of mining now almost makes up for the losses inevitable after China forced miners to shut down their tools in May.
The difficulty will increase to 21.89 trillion this week, only a little over 3 trillion lower than the historical high.
Computing power -A measure of processing power dedicated to mining-tells a similar story.
Estimates show that although it cannot be “measured” in clear terms, the hash rate still tends to a record high.
The raw data shows upward and downward trends, and different estimates usually end up with quite different readings. However, the average weekly hash rate is now about 159 exahashes (EH/s) per second—closer than ever to the April record of 180 EH/s.
September provided Bitcoin buyers with an opportunity to “buy on dips” in gold, and there was also a short-term correction in October.
Did you buy the dipping sauce? If you do, you join an increasingly powerful group of long-term holders whose beliefs only increased in October.
As famous In a study conducted by the major exchange Kraken last week, the price increase and reached a record high of $67,100 failed to attract holders to sell BTC.
The researchers concluded: “It is worth noting that although long-term holders are not worried about last month’s retracement and use it as an opportunity to continue to increase their holdings, although the price rebounded sharply to a record high of close to $67,000, But this trend has not changed.”
“In other words, the supply shock from purchases by long-term holders last month will only become stronger this month.”
They added that it is these entities, not short-term speculators, that are driving price performance in the fourth quarter of this year.
This is consistent with previous analysis, especially analyst Willy Woo, show The so-called “last hodlers” or “Rick Astley” investors are still committed to their investments. Since 2020, long-term holders include the miners themselves.
“Since 2020 miners have been BTC holders (and buyers), this is a huge change in behavior,” Woo famous this weekend.
“Since 2009-2014, miners have not been in continuous accumulation behavior.”
The foreign exchange balance is the lowest since October 2018
Regarding the topic of supply shocks, the situation on exchanges is grim-from the perspective of Bitcoin bears.
according to Fresh data The exchange BTC reserve from the on-chain analytics company Glassnode is now at its lowest level in three years.
At that time, at the end of 2018, Bitcoin was entering the abyss of the last bear market. The bear market bottomed out in December at a price of $3,100.
Since then, the price trend has changed by an order of magnitude, but the balance is still declining-all of which indicate that if demand increases significantly from here, the scale of the potential shock will be huge.
The exchange now controls 2.47 million BTC, and at its peak in April 2020, there are more than 3.1 million BTC in its order book.
The balance changes between different exchanges may vary greatly.For example, in the past 24 hours, Coinbase Pro led the decline and fell Nearly 20,000 BTC, While the balance of some other players has increased slightly.
The market expects the Fed to announce its withdrawal
The coming week may have some familiar trends in the traditional market-and their traditional chain impact on the crypto market.
This may be attributed to the new comments made by the US Federal Reserve on the management of the coronavirus on Tuesday and Wednesday, as the market expects further clues to curtailment of asset purchases.
This is at a time when global inflation is rising, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has previously admitted that the accompanying narrative — the supply chain crisis — may “continue until next year”.
“I think the Fed has made up its mind to start shrinking soon. We expect them to announce next week and then start soon, so this is set in stone,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab. Tell Yahoo Finance last week.
“I think the big debate right now is how fast the Fed actually raises interest rates. The market’s expectations have actually changed to two interest rate hikes in 2022 and 2023… This is a very radical pace of tightening.”
These conditions help increase the attractiveness of Bitcoin as an inherently deflationary asset class with a mathematically verifiable upper limit of supply.
Institutions flow into existing Bitcoin investment products, as well as the newly launched futures exchange-traded funds (ETF), emphasize Growing demand.