Bitcoin (Bitcoin) Only refused to die this week, because the drop below $60,000 lasted only an hour, and the shorts were burned again.
After a fairly quiet weekend, there was a typical retracement on Sunday, and then only an hour later BTC/USD saw a dramatic rebound.
With this, Bitcoin not only maintained its bullish trajectory, but also set its highest weekly closing price in history-approximately $61,500.
Analysts said that as the market prepares for the possible start of trading of the US’s first Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), volatility is almost guaranteed.
Cointelegraph analyzed five things that need to be considered this week, that is, BTC/USD has reached an all-time high, and institutional access has achieved a historic leap.
Bitcoin can be “buy on dips” in less than an hour
Just when it seemed to have encountered a stumbling block when hitting a new all-time high, Bitcoin once again surprised everyone overnight.
After losing $60,000 late on Sunday, the bulls did not have time to wait for the BTC price to weaken, and they started buying heavily before BTC/USD even reached $59,000.
A few hours later, the pair of currencies not only returned to more than $60,000, but also returned to more than $62,000-and remained there as of this writing.
This incident did not even affect Bitcoin Weekly closing, Although volatility is still the highest ever-approximately $61,500.
“Historic weekly closing prices now mean that BTC is in a favorable position for further gains,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital Summarize on Monday.
He added that, consistent with the previous bull market years of 2013 and 2017, the next phase of the BTC price trend will be “more volatile” than before.
At the same time, as various analysts celebrate weekly closing milestones, the upcoming opening of the US market may also be exciting.
With the support of U.S. regulators, the first Bitcoin ETF product may be launched on Monday, because BTC/USD is less than $3,000 from the historical high.
In terms of derivatives, the exchange’s financing interest rate has also cooled since last week, which relieves those who worry about unsustainable upside leading to price collapse.
ETF is “going”, but it is not for everyone
Love it or hate it now, this week is all about Bitcoin ETFs.
Later last week, as rumors about US regulators approving the green light began to circulate, Bitcoin price movements Heat up -It looks like this trend will continue this week.
After years of rejection, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is preparing to witness Two ETF products Both are based on CME Group Bitcoin futures.
These are before the lengthy decision-making process on physical Bitcoin ETFs that begin next month, namely those that use actual BTC as their underlying assets and constitute topics of real interest to analysts.
There is no guarantee that those traditional ETFs will be approved, and worry Already everywhere The market may be disappointed again.
However, due to multiple applications pending decision, the US Securities and Exchange Commission still has six months to make a breakthrough.
Optimism will continue to be beneficial to the crypto industry this week, as Grayscale confirm It will apply to convert its flagship Bitcoin fund product into an ETF.
— Barry Silbert (@BarrySilbert) October 17, 2021
Grayscale’s fund, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), has been a topic in itself in recent weeks, and the transaction price is Increase discount Found BTC while worrying about institutional clients voting with their feet before the launch of the ETF.
The higher fees of the former are an example of the competitive advantage debate, and some people have pointed out that, by definition, futures-based ETFs will not function as a suitable substitute.
This chart shows why you are best to buy #Bitcoin Than Bitcoin Futures ETF. For investors, the new Bitcoin ETF may be more expensive than the direct purchase of cryptocurrencies. Since the start of Bitcoin futures in 2017, the performance of Bitcoin futures has lagged by 30%. https://t.co/1ZnVBJQlGa pic.twitter.com/oXrZ95Wsmg
-Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) October 17, 2021
“First of all, most institutional participants have direct access to CME futures. Usually, the main reason they choose to trade ETFs instead of futures is to avoid tracking errors caused by futures rollover costs or price deviations from futures premiums or spot premiums ( Relative to spot prices),” the crypto trading company QCP Capital added in a notice to Telegram. Channel subscribers Friday.
“Therefore, having an ETF based on CME futures runs counter to the basic advantages of ETFs; track spot prices as closely as possible.”
The difficulty is set to increase for the 7th time in a row
The fundamentals of the Bitcoin network continue to be impressive this week, and difficulty Is leading.
It can be said that the most important feature of Bitcoin is its continuous growth, which will achieve its seventh consecutive growth on Tuesday. The last time it happened was in 2019.
For the first time since June, this growth will make $20 trillion difficult.
Although there have been some fluctuations in the hash rate, there is still estimate It has now fallen back to 123 exahashes per second (EH/s), which has exceeded 140 EH/s this month.
However, as the overall upward trend is still intact, there is news that the United States is now Lion’s share Bitcoin mining capabilities.
Supply shock forecast 2022 to be a “good year”
Although the focus of Bitcoin price forecasts is on what may happen in the fourth quarter of this year, some people have already set their sights further – and used the data to draw more optimistic conclusions.
One analyst who depicts the optimistic outlook for 2022 is Willy Woo, the creator of the data resource Woobull, known for his Bitcoin market cycle research.
Weekend, Wu highlight The increasing scarcity of Bitcoin may result in continued price compression.
He pointed out that, historically, a reduction in supply and more supply remaining in the hands of hoarders who have no plans to sell will generate a strong bull market signal.
His indicator “supply shock for long-term holders” clearly shows that this has happened many times in the history of Bitcoin.
“The technical name of this chart is ‘2022 will be a good year’,” he concluded to his Twitter fans.
As Cointelegraph Report, Long-term holders have controlled a nearly record BTC supply ratio, leading to expectations that the competition for the remaining tokens will be fiercer than ever.
This should be helped when the physical ETF is approved, which could happen as early as November and last for several months.
BTC balance of major exchanges track At the same time, CryptoQuant has closed at slightly less than 2.4 million BTC after falling sharply in September.
The next Bitcoin bear market is coming
Because of being so excited about the highest possible bitcoin price this year and how high it may be, some analysts have turned their attention to the other side-the bear market.
Historically, nothing has risen in a straight line, and Bitcoin is no exception. Each halving cycle will see a price peak in the second year after the block subsidy is halved, and then a price bottom in the middle of the cycle.
Several well-known market participants claimed that this cycle will not be any different.
Therefore, as in 2014 and 2018, there will be a long-term decline in prices after peaking.
For the popular Twitter analyst TechDev, this bottom line should be an order of magnitude higher than the previous one—— Up to 60,000 USD ——But this process should have begun before the end of 2021.
“I want a longer cycle. Who doesn’t? But the macro PA aspect I have seen shows no signs that it will happen,” he warn Followers of the weekend.
“Pay attention to your indicators. Two-week RSI channel, RVI 92-93. If they are hit, I will be out. Ignore them and hope that there is a new paradigm, and you are likely to be abandoned by those who don’t. “
Among the several accompanying charts, one cleverly shows how Bitcoin’s relative strength index over a two-week time frame cleverly captures each peak.
Another celebrity on Twitter, Rekt Capital, also took this opportunity to remind followers and subscribers that they need to seize the opportunity to make a profit.
“People think that BTC will never have a -80% bear market again because it is now mainstream and the assets are too mature,” he said debate.
“Let’s not forget that there was a -53% correction a few months ago. The average bear market depth is -84.5%. This is likely to happen after this bull market.”
Despite this, optimistic predictions were made for the bear market over the weekend, said Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, claim The groove will be “shallower” than other grooves.
As Cointelegraph reported, other measures are focusing on the good times that last until 2022, even for Bitcoin.Earlier this month, PlanB, the creator of the Bitcoin price prediction model based on stock-to-flow, announced that the bull market has reached At least six months Run left.