Why the US$50,000 may be retested before the U.S. employment data is released on Friday

this U.S. dollar market sell-off Assisting Bitcoin in the last weekend (Bitcoin) Climbed to above 49,000 USD. However, as investors remain cautious about the price, it is difficult for BTC to climb to the psychological resistance level above $50,000. The Fed’s shrinking time.

Bitcoin corrected after hitting a high of $49,667 so far this week. Source: TradingView.com

In detail, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Looking forward to moderate doves In his speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Symposium on Friday. At one point, he did not give any hint as to when the Fed would begin to withdraw from its $120 billion monthly asset purchase program.

Powell pointed out that they will start to gradually decrease sometime at the end of 2021, despite acknowledging that the rapidly spreading Delta variant of Covid-19 may be devastating.

“We will carefully evaluate the incoming data and the changing risks,” he said.

“The time and pace of reduction will not convey a direct signal about the timing of interest rate hikes.”

At the same time, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the Fed’s annual core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price, which it considers its preferred inflation indicator, remains unchanged at 3.6%, which is about 1.6% higher than the central bank’s expected target.

Things to focus on next week

There are no major macroeconomic events that may directly or indirectly affect Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency markets in the first half of this week.

But on September 1, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Institute will Release of August private sector employment dataIn addition, investors may pay attention to the paid price component of the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. By doing so, they can measure the input price pressure in the manufacturing industry to determine inflation.

Friday, non-agricultural employment data (NFP) Expected to show an increase of 763,000 jobs in the U.S. economy In August, it was about 19% less than the 943,000 copies in July. Therefore, disappointing employment data may delay the Fed’s decision to scale back its asset purchase program and help raise the price of risky assets, including Bitcoin.

Technical settings

Technically, Bitcoin has Trending in the short-term ascending channel, Implying a move to the low trend line (close to 47,000 USD) and may pull back to the high trend line (above 50,000 USD).

Bitcoin’s 4-hour price chart has an ascending channel mode. Source: TradingView.com

Prolonged selling below the lower trend line of the channel may cause the BTC/USD exchange rate to fall to the 200-4H exponential moving average (200-4H EMA; yellow wave) to near 44,600 USD.

related: If the BTC price stays at $49,000, Bitcoin will usher in an “extraordinary” weekly closing price

The downside target seems to be closer to the target visible on the weekly chart.

Bitcoin weekly price chart settings. Source: TradingView.com

After the 75.36% bullish trend, the BTC/USD exchange rate has been testing the 0.786 line of the Fibonacci retracement chart (close to 50,779 USD). Therefore, the long-term correction from the above price ceiling brings Bitcoin’s next downside target close to the 0.618-Fib line (approximately $43,886).

Conversely, a neutral RSI reading (below 70) may help the bulls recover $50,000 to achieve a bullish breakout. By doing so, they can set a level close to $60,000 as their next upside target.

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