XRP Price Prediction: SEC’s Decision Nears—Can XRP Break $3 Again?
The future of XRP hangs in the balance as the SEC’s next closed meeting approaches. Investors eagerly await the regulator’s decision—will the agency drop its appeal in the Ripple case, or continue the legal battle?
Adding to market uncertainty, US tariff threats have placed pressure on Bitcoin (BTC), raising concerns over inflation and Federal Reserve policy.
Key Developments in the XRP-SEC Case
XRP is currently trading well below its January 16 high of $3.3999, with market participants closely watching the SEC’s appeal strategy. The SEC filed an appeal-related brief on January 15, just days before Gary Gensler stepped down as Chair.
Now, with Commissioner Mark Uyeda serving as Acting Chair, industry experts speculate whether a regulatory shift is in motion. Uyeda has been vocal against aggressive crypto enforcement by the SEC, stating:
“The Commission’s war on crypto must end, including enforcement actions solely based on a failure to register, with no fraud or harm involved.”
Adding further intrigue, Commissioner Hester Peirce has been appointed as the lead of the SEC’s newly formed Crypto Task Force. Despite this, the SEC has yet to withdraw its appeal, challenging the court’s ruling on XRP’s Programmatic Sales.
Will the SEC’s Next Meeting Decide XRP’s Fate?
The SEC’s next closed meeting is scheduled for Thursday, February 13, under the Sunshine Notice Act. The meeting’s agenda includes:
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- Institution and settlement of injunctive actions
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- Institution and settlement of administrative proceedings
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- Resolution of litigation claims
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- Other matters relating to examinations and enforcement proceedings
One notable absence in the meeting is Jorge Tenreiro, a top crypto litigator for the SEC, who recently transferred to the IT division. Tenreiro played a key role in the Ripple case, and his departure could influence the SEC’s next steps.
XRP Price Analysis: What’s Next?
On February 9, XRP dropped 1.04%, reversing the previous day’s 0.89% gain, closing at $2.3945. The broader crypto market only declined 0.13%, indicating XRP’s underperformance.
Possible XRP Scenarios:
1️⃣ Bullish Outlook: If the SEC withdraws its appeal, XRP could break past $3.5505, its all-time high.
2️⃣ ETF Catalyst: A US XRP-spot ETF approval could push XRP toward $5, attracting institutional inflows.
3️⃣ Bearish Scenario: If the SEC proceeds with its appeal, XRP could slide below $1.50.
With regulatory uncertainty still looming, investors await a major decision that could dictate XRP’s trajectory.
Bitcoin Faces Pressure Amid US Tariff Threats
Beyond the Ripple case, the broader crypto market faces fresh headwinds from the US government’s tariff policies impacting Bitcoin (BTC).
On February 9, reports surfaced that US President Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on aluminum and steel imports. In addition, Trump has signaled the introduction of reciprocal tariffs, targeting nations imposing heavy fees on US goods.
These tariffs are expected to take effect by Tuesday or Wednesday, depending on China’s response to US trade policies on February 10.
How US Tariffs Could Impact BTC
1️⃣ Higher Import Prices → Increased inflationary pressures
2️⃣ Fed Rate Delays → The Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts
3️⃣ Hawkish Monetary Policy → Risk assets, including Bitcoin, could decline
BTC’s Reaction to Inflation & Fed Policy
On February 7, Bitcoin slipped from $100,216 to $95,688 following stronger-than-expected inflation data. The Michigan Inflation Expectations Index surged to 4.3% in February, up from 3.3% in January.
Investors are now closely watching:
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- US CPI Data Release (February 11)
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- Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony on Capitol Hill
A hawkish stance from the Fed or a rise in inflation expectations could add more pressure on BTC.
Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR): A Game-Changer?
While short-term macroeconomic risks persist, the long-term outlook for BTC adoption is strengthening.
The US State of Utah recently passed a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) Bill, and other states including Texas, Florida, Arizona, and Pennsylvania are considering similar legislation.
A nationwide SBR could significantly impact Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics, potentially driving long-term price appreciation.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: Key Levels to Watch
On February 9, BTC slipped 0.13%, following a 0.01% decline on Saturday, closing at $96,527.
Key Price Scenarios:
🔴 Bearish Case: A more aggressive tariff policy, a hawkish Fed, and stalled SBR discussions could push BTC toward $90,000.
🟢 Bullish Case: If the US scales back tariffs, the Fed turns dovish, and SBR initiatives gain traction, BTC could rally toward its all-time high of $109,312.
Market Outlook: XRP & BTC at a Crossroads
As the market navigates regulatory uncertainty, two key developments will shape sentiment:
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- The SEC’s appeal strategy in the Ripple case
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- Progress toward a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Both events hold the potential to drive significant institutional adoption, making XRP and BTC price trends highly sensitive to regulatory shifts.
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